DALHEZÉ

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.91

Advertised RTP

76.30%

EV $0.69 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.45%

2,951 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.33%±8.09369 openings

7 days

78.29%±3.222,314 openings

30 days

78.45%±2.852,951 openings

since tracking started

78.45%±2.852,951 openings

69.5%78.3%87.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	369	78.33%±8.09	+0.5σ	odds
7d	2,314	78.29%±3.22	+0.8σ	odds
30d	2,951	78.45%±2.85	+1.0σ	odds
All	2,951	78.45%±2.85	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,954 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 19,760	$49.97	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 19,572	$41.07	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Charm \| 8 Ball IGLcharm · Ancient	1 in 19,273	$34.24	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 16,598	$19.46	0.2%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 10,114	$11.55	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Charm \| Glitter Bombcharm · red	1 in 9,936	$11.41	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 7,470	$9.63	0.2%	2	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,087	$7.26	0.3%	4	0.7	—
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,069	$6.45	0.3%	0	1.0	—
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,912	$5.37	0.4%	1	1.5	0.65×
P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 971	$4.19	0.6%	5	3.0	1.64×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 587	$3.49	0.9%	4	5.0	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 572	$3.46	0.9%	13	5.2	2.52×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 271	$2.64	1.4%	5	10.9	0.46×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 123	$1.95	2.3%	19	24.0	0.79×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 101	$1.80	2.6%	18	29.3	0.61×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 99	$1.79	2.6%	35	29.9	1.17×
MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 93	$1.74	2.7%	35	31.9	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$1.70	2.8%	44	33.9	1.30×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 59	$1.44	3.5%	67	50.3	1.33×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 57	$1.41	3.6%	45	52.1	0.86×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$1.14	4.5%	72	81.9	0.88×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$1.13	4.6%	80	83.1	0.96×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 34	$1.10	4.7%	96	87.8	1.09×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$0.87	5.6%	122	131.2	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$0.80	5.7%	149	146.8	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 19	$0.76	5.8%	148	155.5	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.54	5.5%	195	209.8	0.93×
Charm \| That's Bananascharm · uncommon	1 in 14	$0.52	5.4%	267	214.6	1.24×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.52	5.4%	248	214.2	1.16×
Charm \| Lil' Chompercharm · #8847ff	1 in 13	$0.47	5.1%	231	222.6	1.04×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$0.45	5.0%	230	225.0	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 13	$0.45	4.9%	63	225.8	0.28×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$0.36	4.0%	241	227.1	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.34	3.8%	230	225.4	1.02×
SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.33	3.6%	0	223.0	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violetLunk!$0.91$0.540.59x8m

UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)weapon · common_Olumsuz_🖕$0.91$0.450.49x11m

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff_Olumsuz_🖕$0.91$1.101.21x11m

Charm | That's Bananascharm · uncommon_Olumsuz_🖕$0.91$0.520.57x11m

Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical_Olumsuz_🖕$0.91$0.450.50x11m

AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted_Olumsuz_🖕$0.91$1.141.25x11m

P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff_Olumsuz_🖕$0.91$0.360.40x11m

Charm | Lil' Chompercharm · #8847ff_Olumsuz_🖕$0.91$0.470.52x11m

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet_Olumsuz_🖕$0.91$0.340.38x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.30%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.91	76.30%	36
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.91	76.14%	35
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.91	75.94%	36
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.91	75.85%	35
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.91	76.34%	35
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.91	76.63%	35
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.91	76.54%	35
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.91	76.60%	35
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.91	76.56%	35
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.91	76.71%	35
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.91	77.14%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.91	77.09%	35
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.91	77.08%	35
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.91	77.11%	35
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.91	77.11%	35
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.91	77.04%	35
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.91	77.17%	35
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.91	77.16%	35
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.91	77.25%	35
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.91	77.04%	35
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.91	77.10%	35
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.91	77.04%	35
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.91	77.08%	35
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.91	77.59%	35
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.91	77.53%	35
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.91	77.44%	35
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.91	77.19%	35
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.91	77.23%	35
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.91	77.36%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.91	77.20%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 0.2%#d32ce6 0.1%classified 0.0%restricted 14.0%uncommon 7.3%Classified 0.2%violet 21.3%Mythical 15.7%#8847ff 25.9%common 7.6%Rare 7.5%best hit —