Danger Zone

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.53

Advertised RTP

76.11%

EV $0.40 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.09%

1,270 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

121.52%±18.06173 openings

7 days

103.09%±8.00925 openings

30 days

98.09%±6.851,270 openings

since tracking started

98.09%±6.851,270 openings

75.5%107.7%140.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.06% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.24% – 104.93%, 1,270 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	173	121.52%±18.1	+4.9σ	odds
7d	925	103.09%±8.00	+6.4σ	odds
30d	1,270	98.09%±6.85	+6.0σ	odds
All	1,270	98.09%±6.85	+6.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,270 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,833	$39.83	1.0%	2	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,825	$39.17	1.0%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,186	$5.18	1.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 930	$4.72	1.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 716	$4.28	1.5%	5	1.8	2.82×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$0.83	13.3%	0	81.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$0.51	12.5%	188	125.5	1.50×
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$0.51	12.5%	192	125.3	1.53×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.1%	$0.48	12.1%	152	127.6	1.19×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.3%	$0.45	11.3%	173	130.3	1.33×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.27	6.2%	31	118.3	0.26×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.26	5.9%	41	116.6	0.35×
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.25	5.6%	16	114.4	0.14×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.25	5.5%	68	113.5	0.60×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.24	5.4%	69	112.5	0.61×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.20	3.9%	68	99.6	0.68×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert嫉妒Moutty$0.53$41.4978.28x3d

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertGugugagich$0.53$39.6174.74x18h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedOgurchik$0.53$0.591.11x1h

USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedxco5$0.53$0.510.96x3h

Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec???$0.53$0.240.46x3h

Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec"Safar"$0.53$0.240.46x4h

Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec،دنH.u.y.L.o.P.a.N. 2.0ال$0.53$0.250.47x5h

Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specROLTON$0.53$0.230.44x7h

Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specDavidGamer_QP$0.53$0.240.45x10h

USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedDavidGamer_QP$0.53$0.480.92x10h

Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specDavidGamer_QP$0.53$0.250.48x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.11%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.53	76.11%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.53	75.97%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.53	75.79%	16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.53	76.23%	16
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.53	76.52%	16
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.53	76.48%	16
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.53	76.54%	16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.53	76.63%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.53	76.60%	16
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.53	77.16%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.53	77.13%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.53	77.13%	16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.53	77.04%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.53	77.09%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.53	77.19%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.53	77.27%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.53	77.07%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.53	77.03%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.53	77.02%	16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.53	77.01%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.53	77.08%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.53	77.15%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.53	77.45%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.53	77.44%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.53	77.38%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.53	77.20%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.53	77.19%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.53	77.27%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.53	77.18%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.53	77.17%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Legendary 0.2%classified 0.1%restricted 36.3%violet 10.3%mil spec 53.1%best hit $41.49 (78.28x)