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CS2: Danger Zone

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$13.99
Advertised RTP
73.87%
EV $10.33 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.84%
6,971 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
73.25%±7.28971 openings
7 days
76.33%±2.636,059 openings
30 days
75.84%±2.436,971 openings
since tracking started
75.84%±2.436,971 openings
65.5%73.3%81.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h97173.25%±7.28−0.2σodds
7d6,05976.33%±2.63+1.2σodds
30d6,97175.84%±2.43+0.9σodds
All6,97175.84%±2.43+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,978 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 493$1993.9%1414.20.99×
Glock-18 | Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 487$1643.3%1114.30.77×
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 420$85.352.0%716.60.42×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 329$60.931.8%1321.20.61×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 165$38.242.2%2142.30.50×
AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 58$24.004.0%63119.30.53×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 28$17.706.1%102249.10.41×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 27$17.396.3%171260.00.66×
AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 15$13.698.6%350450.50.78×
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 12$11.9410.0%424601.80.70×
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted11.8%$10.1511.6%984824.11.19×
P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified16.1%$8.4213.1%1,5151123.11.35×
Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4b20.1%$7.1513.9%2,7681399.91.98×
Nova | Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted26.4%$5.2313.4%1641841.40.09×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4bDaredevil$13.99$7.130.51x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedDaredevil$13.99$11.670.83x
P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDaredevil$13.99$9.430.67x
Nova | Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedSYND1CAT$13.99$5.210.37x
Nova | Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedSYND1CAT$13.99$5.210.37x
Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4bSYND1CAT$13.99$7.130.51x
AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4bSYND1CAT$13.99$13.590.97x
Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4bDaredevil$13.99$7.130.51x
Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4bDaredevil$13.99$7.130.51x
P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedСельский Слесарь$13.99$9.430.67x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$13.9973.87%14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$13.9973.71%14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$13.9973.71%13
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$13.9973.97%14
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$13.9974.30%15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$13.9974.32%14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$13.9974.28%14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$13.9974.34%13
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$13.9974.41%13
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$13.9974.82%13
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$13.9974.80%13
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$13.9974.79%13
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$13.9974.84%13
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$13.9974.81%13
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$13.9974.82%13
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$13.9974.84%13
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$13.9974.81%13
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$13.9974.82%13
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$13.9974.80%13
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$13.9974.83%13
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$13.9974.77%13
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$13.9974.87%13
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$13.9975.20%13
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$13.9975.22%13
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$13.9975.14%13
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$13.9974.85%13
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$13.9974.93%13
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$13.9974.90%13
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$13.9974.91%13
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$13.9974.89%13
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%red 0.4%classified 25.1%#eb4b4b 26.5%restricted 20.4%Restricted 26.4%best hit —