Тёмное фэнтези
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$10.99
Advertised RTP
70.50%
EV $7.75 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.02%
5,122 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 71.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (73.09% – 76.96%, 5,122 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,165 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 70.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 70.50% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 70.35% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 70.33% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 70.60% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 70.91% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.92% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.91% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 70.97% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 71.02% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 71.42% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 71.40% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 71.38% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 71.41% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 71.40% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 71.42% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.42% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.39% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.43% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.42% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.41% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 71.35% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.47% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 71.80% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 71.80% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.71% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.43% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.51% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 71.49% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 71.50% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $10.99 | 71.46% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%sunny 0.0%epic 0.0%rare 0.5%covert 0.2%extraordinary 0.0%red 0.0%classified 24.3%pink 8.4%Ancient 0.5%Mythical 7.2%restricted 25.1%violet 16.9%#8847ff 8.6%#4b69ff 8.2%best hit —