Darkness mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.49
Advertised RTP
66.57%
EV $0.99 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
210.84%
13.4K openings, odds method
Variance
103.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 431
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 67.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (193.37% – 228.32%, 13,435 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 8,365 | $636 | 7.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 7,705 | $553 | 7.2% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 7,000 | $489 | 7.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 5,925 | $418 | 7.1% | 11 | 2.3 | 4.85× |
| ★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 568 | $145 | 25.7% | 86 | 23.7 | 3.63× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny | 1 in 329 | $119 | 36.6% | 134 | 40.8 | 3.29× |
| Charm | Whittle Guycharm · #4b69ff | 99.5% | $0.09 | 8.7% | 13,185 | 13364.0 | 0.99× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.57%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.49 | 66.57% | 7 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.43% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.41% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.67% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.49 | 66.96% | 7 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.49 | 66.96% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.49 | 66.95% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.49 | 67.01% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.49 | 67.10% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.49 | 67.44% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.49 | 67.42% | 7 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.49 | 67.41% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.43% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.43% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.43% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.44% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.41% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.42% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.43% | 7 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.44% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.37% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.47% | 7 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.49 | 67.81% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.49 | 67.79% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.71% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.45% | 7 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.54% | 7 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.55% | 7 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.49 | 67.56% | 7 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.49 | 67.53% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.2%sunny 0.3%#4b69ff 99.5%best hit $622 (417.3x)