Price
$269.00
Advertised RTP
77.11%
EV $207.42 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.93%
123 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 123 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.11%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $269 | 77.11% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $269 | 76.91% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $269 | 76.74% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $269 | 76.72% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $269 | 77.02% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $269 | 77.35% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $269 | 77.36% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $269 | 77.34% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $269 | 77.41% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $269 | 77.47% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $269 | 77.91% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $269 | 77.88% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $269 | 77.87% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $269 | 77.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $269 | 77.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $269 | 77.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $269 | 77.91% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $269 | 77.88% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $269 | 77.89% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $269 | 77.90% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $269 | 77.90% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $269 | 77.83% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $269 | 77.96% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $269 | 78.31% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $269 | 78.32% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $269 | 78.23% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $269 | 77.91% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $269 | 78.00% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $269 | 78.00% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $269 | 78.01% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 1.9%legendary 9.9%Immortal 34.3%gold 6.8%rare 13.0%epic 27.9%extraordinary 6.2%best hit $784 (2.91x)