DEXONTV
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.99
Advertised RTP
76.14%
EV $2.28 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.09%
1,023 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,023 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.14%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.99 | 76.14% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.99 | 75.90% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.99 | 75.92% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.99 | 76.26% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.99 | 76.56% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.99 | 76.54% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.99 | 76.52% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.99 | 76.61% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.99 | 76.72% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.99 | 77.07% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.99 | 77.08% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.99 | 77.11% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.99 | 77.03% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.99 | 77.10% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.99 | 77.15% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.11% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.04% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.09% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.16% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.10% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.99 | 77.05% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.13% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.99 | 77.44% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.99 | 77.47% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.40% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.11% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.14% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.99 | 77.21% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.99 | 77.24% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.99 | 77.18% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 9.3%#d32ee6 0.1%blue 0.2%Classified 0.2%pink 10.6%Rare 11.0%Legendary 2.8%restricted 45.4%Mythical 10.3%#8847ff 10.0%best hit —