donk

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.67

Advertised RTP

75.67%

EV $0.51 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.04%

14.4K openings, odds method

Variance

4.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.03%±10.741,565 openings

7 days

86.28%±3.9711.7K openings

30 days

87.04%±3.5814.4K openings

since tracking started

87.04%±3.5814.4K openings

72.5%84.0%95.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.56% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.46% – 90.62%, 14,447 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,565	84.03%±10.7	+1.5σ	odds
7d	11.7K	86.28%±3.97	+4.8σ	odds
30d	14.4K	87.04%±3.58	+5.7σ	odds
All	14.4K	87.04%±3.58	+5.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,996	$93.88	1.9%	4	1.4	2.76×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,993	$75.38	1.5%	4	1.4	2.76×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,982	$56.56	1.1%	4	1.4	2.76×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,916	$33.46	0.7%	5	1.5	3.43×
Charm \| Quick Silvercharm · red	1 in 9,899	$31.47	0.6%	2	1.5	1.37×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,223	$15.56	0.3%	2	1.6	1.28×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 8,324	$11.63	0.3%	3	1.7	1.73×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,650	$6.49	0.3%	1	3.1	0.32×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 4,653	$6.49	0.3%	3	3.1	0.97×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 4,067	$5.99	0.3%	6	3.6	1.69×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,929	$5.05	0.3%	14	4.9	2.84×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,889	$4.15	0.4%	9	7.7	1.18×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,428	$3.70	0.5%	5	10.1	0.49×
Charm \| Piñatitacharm · #d32ce6	1 in 845	$3.02	0.7%	37	17.1	2.16×
MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 264	$1.95	1.5%	54	54.7	0.99×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 208	$1.78	1.7%	53	69.6	0.76×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 200	$1.75	1.7%	50	72.1	0.69×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$1.02	3.6%	117	261.2	0.45×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 40	$0.87	4.2%	540	357.7	1.51×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 38	$0.85	4.4%	44	375.8	0.12×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 38	$0.84	4.3%	89	378.6	0.24×
Charm \| Lil' Whiskerscharm · #8847ff	1 in 36	$0.82	4.5%	622	399.7	1.56×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 34	$0.79	4.6%	597	426.8	1.40×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.54	5.2%	722	712.7	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$0.49	5.1%	956	764.1	1.25×
Charm \| Lil' Chompercharm · #8847ff	1 in 18	$0.47	5.1%	1,042	798.4	1.31×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$0.41	4.8%	331	853.8	0.39×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.40	4.7%	522	866.9	0.60×
P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 16	$0.38	4.5%	872	881.4	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.36	4.4%	486	891.0	0.55×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$0.36	4.4%	1,144	890.7	1.28×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$0.34	4.2%	446	898.1	0.50×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 16	$0.33	4.1%	288	901.4	0.32×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.33	4.0%	981	901.5	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.30	3.7%	211	900.4	0.23×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.26	3.1%	273	878.7	0.31×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$0.25	2.9%	977	865.4	1.13×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertДабстеп молитва$0.67$97.33145.3x5d

AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMorok$0.67$95.37142.3x3d

AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertFraise$0.67$93.36139.3x3d

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covertгрейс_лох_2003$0.67$77.65115.9x2d

AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertAeXe$0.67$77.63115.9x19h

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covertcalango$0.67$77.54115.7x7d

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covertEcl1pse$0.67$77.09115.1x3d

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covertVlador$0.67$76.85114.7x3d

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covertAr4i_108$0.67$59.5788.91x3d

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSkyf$0.67$57.2185.39x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare🐻❤Sangirqa❤🐻$0.67$0.330.49x19m

Charm | Lil' Chompercharm · #8847ff🐻❤Sangirqa❤🐻$0.67$0.470.70x19m

SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec🐻❤Sangirqa❤🐻$0.67$0.410.61x19m

P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · RestrictedKatakia$0.67$0.370.55x19m

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareKatakia$0.67$0.330.49x19m

Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specKatakia$0.67$0.260.39x19m

MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violetKatakia$0.67$0.530.79x19m

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedKatakia$0.67$0.250.37x19m

SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specKatakia$0.67$0.410.61x19m

Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedKatakia$0.67$0.530.79x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.67	75.67%	37
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.67	75.47%	37
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.67	75.42%	37
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.67	75.81%	36
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.67	76.10%	37
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.67	76.15%	36
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.67	76.12%	37
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.67	76.12%	37
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.67	76.24%	37
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.67	76.65%	37
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.67	76.63%	37
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.67	76.63%	37
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.67	76.65%	37
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.67	76.61%	36
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.67	76.59%	36
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	76.63%	38
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	76.66%	37
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.67	76.59%	37
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.67	76.64%	37
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.67	76.61%	37
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.67	76.63%	37
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.67	76.66%	37
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.67	76.99%	37
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.67	77.02%	36
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.67	76.99%	36
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.67	76.60%	37
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.67	76.75%	37
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.67	76.78%	36
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.67	76.65%	36
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.67	76.61%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.1%restricted 13.1%pink 0.1%uncommon 0.0%violet 5.0%#d32ce6 0.1%#8847ff 17.4%blue 6.7%Rare 6.7%Mythical 11.7%#4b69ff 8.6%mil spec 24.4%Restricted 6.1%best hit $97.33 (145.3x)