Doppler mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.39
Advertised RTP
65.01%
EV $0.90 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
369.93%
3,802 openings, odds method
Variance
74.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 202
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.62% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (342.37% – 397.48%, 3,802 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,812 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 5,810 | $433 | 8.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 4,298 | $354 | 9.1% | 5 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 1,685 | $228 | 15.0% | 13 | 2.3 | 5.75× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 253 | $115 | 50.2% | 114 | 15.1 | 7.55× |
| MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1 | 36.2% | $0.27 | 10.7% | 3,634 | 1381.6 | 2.63× |
| MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2 | 20.0% | $0.15 | 3.3% | 0 | 763.9 | 0.00× |
| UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 13.3% | $0.10 | 1.4% | 0 | 506.6 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 0.7% | 0 | 355.8 | 0.00× |
| G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 0.7% | 0 | 358.2 | 0.00× |
| PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 17 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 0 | 226.2 | 0.00× |
| MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 1 in 19 | $0.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 200.8 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.39 | 65.01% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 64.86% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.70% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.69% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.91% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 65.22% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.22% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.22% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.27% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.31% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 65.65% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 65.64% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.69% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.67% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.62% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.72% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 66.03% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 66.01% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.94% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.68% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.77% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.77% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 65.77% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 36.2%2 20.0%sunny 0.4%#ffd700 0.1%industrial 28.6%Uncommon 9.3%#87c7ff 5.3%best hit $433 (311.4x)