Dreams & Nightmares Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$10.99
Advertised RTP
75.21%
EV $8.27 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.89%
2,620 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.20% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.31% – 85.47%, 2,620 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,620 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.21%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 75.21% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.03% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.03% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.31% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 75.65% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.64% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.66% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.74% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.76% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.12% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.25% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 76.58% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.52% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.27% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $10.99 | 76.25% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 0.7%covert 0.0%sunny 0.1%Covert 0.3%#ffd700 0.4%red 0.7%Ancient 0.8%classified 32.4%pink 32.4%#d32ee6 32.2%best hit —