Стиль

A case on csgo.net (Ultra), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$209.00

Advertised RTP

71.02%

EV $148.42 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

67.53%

140 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

68.29%±9.85123 openings

30 days

67.53%±9.25140 openings

since tracking started

67.53%±9.25140 openings

48.5%69.0%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	68.95%±20.0	—	odds
7d	123	68.29%±9.85	−0.7σ	odds
30d	140	67.53%±9.25	−0.9σ	odds
All	140	67.53%±9.25	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,147	$2,970	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 4,325	$1,993	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 2,822	$1,594	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,274	$1,138	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,099	$1,074	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 756	$931	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 577	$842	1.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 129	$478	2.5%	1	1.1	0.92×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 97	$427	3.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$424	3.0%	2	1.5	1.37×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$335	4.1%	2	2.5	0.79×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 39	$283	4.9%	2	3.6	0.56×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 36	$273	5.1%	5	3.9	1.29×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$261	5.3%	4	4.2	0.95×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$205	6.2%	8	6.3	1.28×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 22	$204	6.2%	6	6.3	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$162	6.4%	4	8.3	0.48×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 16	$150	6.4%	7	8.8	0.79×
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$122	5.9%	7	10.0	0.70×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 14	$121	5.8%	10	10.0	1.00×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 14	$111	5.5%	9	10.3	0.87×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 14	$109	5.4%	5	10.3	0.48×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$99.46	5.0%	5	10.5	0.48×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$93.93	4.7%	6	10.5	0.57×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$83.52	4.1%	7	10.3	0.68×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$70.56	3.3%	21	9.8	2.14×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$67.61	3.1%	11	9.7	1.14×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryYou Pidrs$209$2711.30x8h

M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedVLIQ$209$99.280.48x9h

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedVLIQ$209$2040.98x9h

★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rareVLIQ$209$1500.72x9h

AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedVLIQ$209$93.900.45x9h

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryVLIQ$209$83.300.40x9h

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedVLIQ$209$66.960.32x9h

M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedVLIQ$209$99.280.48x9h

AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMPC TURN OFF CAPS$209$93.960.45x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 71.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$209	71.02%	27
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$209	70.85%	27
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$209	70.84%	27
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$209	71.11%	27
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$209	71.42%	27
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$209	71.43%	27
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$209	71.41%	27
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$209	71.47%	27
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$209	71.53%	27
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$209	71.94%	27
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$209	71.91%	27
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$209	71.90%	27
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$209	71.93%	27
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$209	71.93%	27
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$209	71.93%	27
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$209	71.94%	27
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$209	71.91%	27
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$209	71.92%	27
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$209	71.93%	27
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$209	71.93%	27
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$209	71.87%	26
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$209	71.98%	27
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$209	72.31%	27
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$209	72.32%	27
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$209	72.23%	27
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$209	71.94%	27
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$209	72.02%	27
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$209	72.02%	27
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$209	72.02%	27
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$209	72.00%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 22.1%extraordinary 13.3%gold 1.1%restricted 1.1%classified 34.3%sunny 2.6%epic 4.5%rare 6.3%red 7.3%Covert 7.4%best hit —