Dust
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$26.99
Advertised RTP
76.62%
EV $20.68 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
107.04%
13 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
39.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 13 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 9,719 | $563 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 141 | $131 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AUG | Copperhead (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 1 in 51 | $89.96 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AWP | Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $76.22 | 11.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| P2000 | Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 11.6% | $39.83 | 22.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| Glock-18 | Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 22.4% | $17.85 | 19.3% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.06× |
| SCAR-20 | Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff | 21.4% | $13.05 | 13.5% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| AK-47 | Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 20.7% | $12.06 | 12.1% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| M4A4 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 18.2% | $9.48 | 8.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.62%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $26.99 | 76.62% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.45% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.42% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.74% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $26.99 | 77.07% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.06% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.04% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.11% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.18% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $26.99 | 77.58% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.62% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.58% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.55% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.67% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $26.99 | 78.01% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $26.99 | 78.03% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.92% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.71% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $26.99 | 77.68% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%mil spec 3.7%milspec 2.0%restricted 34.0%#87c7ff 21.4%industrial 20.7%Uncommon 18.2%best hit —