Dust 2

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.09

Advertised RTP

69.12%

EV $0.06 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

158.84%

193 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

23 openings · below min

7 days

157.87%±12.80150 openings

30 days

158.84%±11.18193 openings

since tracking started

158.84%±11.18193 openings

68.5%132.0%195.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 69.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (147.67% – 170.02%, 193 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	23	160.19%±34.6	—	odds
7d	150	157.87%±12.8	+13.5σ	odds
30d	193	158.84%±11.2	+15.6σ	odds
All	193	158.84%±11.2	+15.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 193 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,088	$1.15	1.7%	2	0.2	—
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 70	$0.43	10.0%	2	2.8	0.72×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 30	$0.30	16.4%	20	6.5	3.08×
SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	14.2%	$0.09	21.5%	74	27.5	2.69×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	13.8%	$0.07	15.1%	0	26.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	13.8%	$0.07	15.1%	63	26.7	2.36×
Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	10.3%	$0.04	6.6%	0	19.8	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.03	3.2%	0	14.3	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.03	3.2%	0	14.4	0.00×
Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$0.03	2.8%	0	13.6	0.00×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$0.02	1.3%	0	9.5	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 24	$0.01	0.9%	0	7.9	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Sand Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 26	$0.01	0.8%	0	7.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 34	$0.01	0.5%	0	5.6	0.00×
P90 \| Sand Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 34	$0.01	0.5%	0	5.7	0.00×
Nova \| Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 43	<$0.01	0.3%	0	4.5	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · milspeckrandy$0.09$0.091.04x1h

PP-Bizon | Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · 1Серёга стальной$0.09$0.070.76x5h

SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecv26331990$0.09$0.091.03x5h

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · RareAlimka$0.09$0.303.36x11h

PP-Bizon | Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · 1iwcqq$0.09$0.070.77x19h

PP-Bizon | Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · 1Gorneyslav$0.09$0.070.78x21h

SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecGorneyslav$0.09$0.101.09x21h

PP-Bizon | Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · 1Gorneyslav$0.09$0.070.78x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 69.12%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.09	69.12%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.09	68.68%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.09	68.87%	16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.09	69.07%	16
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.09	69.44%	16
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.09	69.42%	16
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.09	69.46%	16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.09	69.38%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.09	69.48%	16
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.09	69.82%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.09	69.82%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.09	69.84%	16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.09	69.96%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.09	69.86%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.09	69.82%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	69.90%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	69.93%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.09	69.96%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.09	69.98%	16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	70.11%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	69.95%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.09	69.82%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.09	70.27%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.09	70.11%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.09	70.19%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.09	69.85%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.09	70.02%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.09	69.97%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.09	70.01%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.09	69.79%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 13.8%classified 0.1%Mythical 1.4%Rare 3.4%milspec 14.2%Uncommon 13.8%industrial 32.2%consumer 21.1%best hit —