CS2 Dust 2

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$9.49

Advertised RTP

76.31%

EV $7.24 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 128,200	$335	0.0%	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 125,378	$329	0.0%	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 80,902	$243	0.0%	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 64,804	$216	0.0%	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 59,567	$208	0.0%	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54,511	$199	0.1%	—
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 49,800	$191	0.1%	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 41,911	$177	0.1%	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,393	$162	0.1%	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32,553	$160	0.1%	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17,719	$127	0.1%	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13,686	$116	0.1%	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 13,598	$115	0.1%	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,430	$105	0.1%	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,135	$91.77	0.2%	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 6,973	$91.04	0.2%	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,041	$75.38	0.3%	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 3,553	$72.12	0.3%	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,944	$67.61	0.3%	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,843	$57.58	0.4%	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,352	$51.77	0.5%	—
MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,049	$47.44	0.6%	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 815	$43.48	0.7%	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 715	$41.54	0.8%	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 633	$39.83	0.9%	—
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 535	$37.55	1.0%	—
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 373	$33.08	1.2%	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 366	$32.87	1.2%	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 350	$32.33	1.3%	—
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 248	$28.57	1.6%	—
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 165	$24.61	2.1%	—
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 153	$23.98	2.2%	—
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 113	$21.36	2.6%	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 84	$19.00	3.1%	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$18.99	3.1%	—
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$18.65	3.2%	—
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$12.01	5.7%	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$11.95	5.7%	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$9.26	6.9%	—
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$8.76	7.1%	—
AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$8.65	7.1%	—
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$5.20	6.9%	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 10	$5.18	6.8%	—
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 10	$4.47	6.2%	—
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	10.0%	$4.28	5.9%	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	10.0%	$3.72	5.1%	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 10	$3.36	4.6%	—
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11	$2.61	3.2%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$9.49	76.31%	48
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$9.49	76.14%	48
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$9.49	76.12%	48
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$9.49	76.43%	48
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$9.49	76.75%	48
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$9.49	76.76%	48
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$9.49	76.73%	48
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$9.49	76.79%	48
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$9.49	76.87%	48
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$9.49	77.30%	48
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$9.49	77.28%	48
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$9.49	77.26%	48
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$9.49	77.29%	48
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$9.49	77.29%	48
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$9.49	77.29%	48
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$9.49	77.30%	48
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$9.49	77.29%	48
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$9.49	77.27%	48
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$9.49	77.29%	48
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$9.49	77.28%	48
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$9.49	77.21%	48
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$9.49	77.35%	48
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$9.49	77.70%	48
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$9.49	77.71%	48
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$9.49	77.59%	48
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$9.49	77.31%	48
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$9.49	77.40%	48
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$9.49	77.38%	48
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$9.49	77.40%	48
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$9.49	77.37%	48

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%classified 12.9%sunny 0.0%red 0.3%extraordinary 0.0%pink 19.8%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.2%mil spec 0.4%covert knife 0.1%gold 0.3%restricted 13.4%Mythical 0.6%Legendary 29.7%violet 5.9%Rare 6.0%#d32ee6 10.0%