Price
$13.99
Advertised RTP
67.71%
EV $9.47 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.77%
825 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 826 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.71%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $13.99 | 67.71% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $13.99 | 67.57% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $13.99 | 67.54% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $13.99 | 67.81% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $13.99 | 68.10% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $13.99 | 68.10% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $13.99 | 68.11% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $13.99 | 68.15% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $13.99 | 68.19% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $13.99 | 68.59% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $13.99 | 68.57% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $13.99 | 68.56% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $13.99 | 68.59% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $13.99 | 68.58% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $13.99 | 68.59% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 68.61% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 68.59% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $13.99 | 68.57% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $13.99 | 68.57% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $13.99 | 68.58% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $13.99 | 68.53% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $13.99 | 68.64% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $13.99 | 68.93% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $13.99 | 68.93% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $13.99 | 68.87% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $13.99 | 68.60% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $13.99 | 68.68% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $13.99 | 68.68% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $13.99 | 68.66% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $13.99 | 68.63% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 17.2%restricted 82.8%best hit —