eblvdez
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$20.99
Advertised RTP
73.87%
EV $15.51 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.12%
1,480 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.80% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.05% – 84.18%, 1,480 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,481 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $20.99 | 73.87% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.71% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.70% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $20.99 | 73.98% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $20.99 | 74.30% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.31% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.29% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.36% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $20.99 | 74.42% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $20.99 | 74.85% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $20.99 | 74.81% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $20.99 | 74.80% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.82% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.83% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $20.99 | 74.76% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.89% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $20.99 | 75.22% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $20.99 | 75.23% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $20.99 | 75.14% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.84% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.93% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $20.99 | 74.92% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $20.99 | 74.93% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $20.99 | 74.90% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%covert 1.5%classified 45.6%extraordinary 0.2%#eb4b4b 0.2%restricted 0.3%red 13.4%rare 15.4%pink 5.9%Legendary 17.4%best hit —