Нескончаемое лето

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.13

Advertised RTP

75.83%

EV $0.10 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.71%

5,232 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

38.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.77%±4.84769 openings

7 days

91.44%±2.114,393 openings

30 days

92.71%±1.955,232 openings

since tracking started

92.71%±1.955,232 openings

75.0%86.8%98.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.65% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.76% – 94.66%, 5,232 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	769	92.77%±4.84	+6.9σ	odds
7d	4,393	91.44%±2.11	+13.9σ	odds
30d	5,232	92.71%±1.95	+16.2σ	odds
All	5,232	92.71%±1.95	+16.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,248 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,166	$3.22	0.4%	2	0.6	—
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 8,176	$2.38	0.3%	2	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 6,588	$1.80	0.3%	3	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 6,417	$1.75	0.3%	2	0.8	—
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,358	$1.51	0.3%	4	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,280	$1.13	0.3%	7	1.6	4.37×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,978	$0.90	0.5%	2	2.7	0.75×
M249 \| Deep Relief (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 1,721	$0.85	0.5%	6	3.0	1.97×
Charm \| Pocket Popcharm · #8847ff	1 in 1,460	$0.80	0.6%	12	3.6	3.34×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,379	$0.78	0.6%	13	3.8	3.42×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 508	$0.54	1.1%	19	10.3	1.84×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 442	$0.51	1.2%	46	11.9	3.87×
Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 206	$0.39	1.9%	37	25.5	1.45×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 189	$0.37	2.0%	30	27.7	1.08×
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 111	$0.31	2.8%	51	47.1	1.08×
Negev \| Dazzle (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 103	$0.30	2.9%	62	51.2	1.21×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.16	7.1%	327	232.4	1.41×
P90 \| Teardown (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.15	7.6%	554	265.9	2.08×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.13	8.1%	499	316.1	1.58×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 11	$0.10	9.3%	0	457.7	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2	10.9%	$0.09	9.4%	0	573.2	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	11.4%	$0.08	9.4%	717	597.9	1.20×
P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial	11.6%	$0.08	9.3%	0	607.0	0.00×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	11.9%	$0.08	9.2%	534	625.3	0.85×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	13.0%	$0.06	8.4%	428	680.6	0.63×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.3%	$0.05	6.5%	783	699.8	1.12×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffDANGERMOON$0.13$0.050.39x39s

P2000 | Red Wing (Well-Worn)weapon · bluei sniff my farts$0.13$0.060.48x1m

Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffDANGERMOON$0.13$0.322.45x1m

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Field-Tested)weapon · RareСырок$0.13$0.080.61x2m

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · RareСырок$0.13$0.131.03x2m

Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffГойдаслав$0.13$0.322.45x9m

MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Field-Tested)weapon · RareГойдаслав$0.13$0.080.61x9m

PP-Bizon | RMX (Field-Tested)weapon · blueKuKuna$0.13$0.070.57x18m

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffdreeeeww$0.13$0.050.38x22m

Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffdreeeeww$0.13$0.050.38x28m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.83%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.13	75.83%	26
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.13	75.64%	26
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.13	75.60%	26
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.13	75.91%	26
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.13	76.36%	26
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.13	76.32%	26
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.13	76.28%	26
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.13	76.16%	27
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.13	76.31%	27
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.13	76.85%	26
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.13	76.65%	26
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.13	76.78%	26
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.13	76.62%	26
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.13	76.71%	26
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.13	76.81%	26
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.13	76.85%	27
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.13	76.68%	27
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.13	76.79%	27
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.13	76.75%	27
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.13	76.63%	27
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.13	76.66%	26
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.13	76.70%	26
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.13	77.08%	27
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.13	77.10%	27
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.13	76.92%	26
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.13	76.71%	27
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.13	76.77%	27
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.13	76.78%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.13	76.70%	27
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.13	76.70%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.1%2 10.9%classified 0.0%#8847ff 0.1%Mythical 0.0%Rare 23.5%restricted 0.2%pink 0.0%violet 0.8%blue 29.7%#4b69ff 14.3%Uncommon 8.7%industrial 11.6%best hit —