eSports 2014 Summer Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$5.39

Advertised RTP

76.76%

EV $4.14 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.84%

1,065 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

84.99%±7.841,039 openings

30 days

84.84%±7.761,065 openings

since tracking started

84.84%±7.761,065 openings

-0.5%79.8%160.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	67.74%±91.5	—	odds
7d	1,039	84.99%±7.84	+2.0σ	odds
30d	1,065	84.84%±7.76	+2.0σ	odds
All	1,065	84.84%±7.76	+2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,066 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,984	$598	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,893	$314	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,812	$259	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,590	$102	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,003	$79.24	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 205	$18.46	2.2%	16	5.2	3.07×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$15.74	2.9%	6	8.0	0.75×
MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$11.24	4.9%	37	19.4	1.91×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$10.91	5.2%	30	20.9	1.44×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$10.19	5.7%	40	24.6	1.62×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$9.47	6.3%	51	29.4	1.74×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$8.78	6.9%	0	34.8	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 27	$8.24	7.5%	21	40.2	0.52×
P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	11.9%	$3.97	11.4%	195	126.6	1.54×
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	13.3%	$3.42	11.0%	106	141.5	0.75×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	14.5%	$2.74	9.6%	94	154.4	0.61×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	14.6%	$2.59	9.1%	195	155.7	1.25×
Negev \| Bratatat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	14.3%	$2.01	6.9%	85	152.5	0.56×
XM1014 \| Red Python (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	14.3%	$1.99	6.9%	61	152.1	0.40×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedПинки Пай$5.39$2.600.48x3h

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedМ'ята ♥$5.39$2.600.48x4h

P90 | Virus (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedМ'ята ♥$5.39$2.680.50x4h

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specМ'ята ♥$5.39$3.370.63x4h

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specМолодой Пенсионе$5.39$3.420.63x8h

MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specМолодой Пенсионе$5.39$3.420.63x9h

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedtohui$5.39$2.590.48x10h

Negev | Bratatat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specdoctorbayard$5.39$2.010.37x12h

MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restrictedrybel1990@@$5.39$11.222.08x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.76%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$5.39	76.76%	19
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$5.39	76.58%	19
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$5.39	76.40%	19
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$5.39	76.40%	19
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$5.39	76.66%	19
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$5.39	77.00%	19
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$5.39	77.03%	19
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$5.39	76.99%	18
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$5.39	77.09%	19
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$5.39	77.14%	19
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$5.39	77.57%	19
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.39	77.55%	19
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$5.39	77.56%	19
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$5.39	77.59%	18
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$5.39	77.57%	18
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$5.39	77.60%	18
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.39	77.56%	18
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.39	77.51%	18
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$5.39	77.53%	18
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$5.39	77.55%	18
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.39	77.54%	18
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.39	77.52%	18
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$5.39	77.63%	19
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$5.39	77.98%	19
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$5.39	78.02%	18
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$5.39	77.90%	18
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$5.39	77.58%	18
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$5.39	77.66%	18
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$5.39	77.65%	18
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$5.39	77.69%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 6.0%restricted 30.6%Mythical 3.3%mil spec 45.6%Rare 14.5%best hit —