eSports 2013 Winter Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$5.39

Advertised RTP

76.77%

EV $4.14 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

107.64%

251 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

35 openings · below min

7 days

102.08%±19.34158 openings

30 days

107.64%±15.78251 openings

since tracking started

107.64%±15.78251 openings

73.5%114.5%155.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.87% – 123.42%, 251 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	35	114.51%±40.3	—	odds
7d	158	102.08%±19.3	+2.5σ	odds
30d	251	107.64%±15.8	+3.8σ	odds
All	251	107.64%±15.8	+3.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 252 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,945	$541	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,549	$265	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,053	$72.55	0.6%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,647	$67.85	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,855	$58.18	0.8%	2	0.1	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 256	$27.93	2.6%	6	1.0	—
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 60	$16.48	6.7%	6	4.2	1.42×
Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$15.20	7.6%	3	5.2	0.57×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$12.96	9.8%	7	7.9	0.89×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	16.0%	$5.80	22.4%	62	40.4	1.54×
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	25.8%	$3.22	20.1%	49	65.1	0.75×
Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	25.7%	$2.27	14.1%	30	64.7	0.46×
Nova \| Ghost Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$2.09	12.6%	46	63.1	0.73×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedМ'ята ♥$5.39$5.621.04x3h

Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec GradeМолодой Пенсионе$5.39$2.270.42x7h

P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spectoyota$5.39$3.220.60x8h

P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedVLIQ$5.39$5.981.11x20h

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedWarriorspeek$5.39$13.172.44x20h

Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specWarriorspeek$5.39$2.520.47x20h

★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeWarriorspeek$5.39$53.369.90x20h

P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedWarriorspeek$5.39$5.981.11x20h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.77%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$5.39	76.77%	13
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$5.39	76.58%	13
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$5.39	76.42%	13
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$5.39	76.39%	13
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$5.39	76.67%	13
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$5.39	77.03%	13
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$5.39	77.02%	13
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$5.39	77.04%	13
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$5.39	77.06%	13
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$5.39	77.17%	13
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$5.39	77.63%	13
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.39	77.59%	13
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$5.39	77.53%	13
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$5.39	77.60%	13
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$5.39	77.53%	13
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$5.39	77.58%	13
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.39	77.54%	13
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.39	77.57%	13
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$5.39	77.54%	13
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$5.39	77.61%	13
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$5.39	77.54%	13
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$5.39	77.49%	13
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$5.39	77.64%	13
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$5.39	78.02%	13
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$5.39	78.02%	13
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$5.39	77.89%	13
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$5.39	77.60%	13
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$5.39	77.70%	13
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$5.39	77.69%	13
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$5.39	77.71%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 0.4%covert knife 0.1%#d32ee6 1.7%mil spec 53.0%restricted 19.1%Mil Spec Grade 25.7%best hit —