Fade mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.39
Advertised RTP
64.84%
EV $0.90 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
8865.04%
2,013 openings, odds method
Variance
60.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 337
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (8830.41% – 8899.68%, 2,013 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,013 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 5,369 | $327 | 6.8% | 54 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,987 | $196 | 10.9% | 165 | 1.0 | 162.88× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 1,972 | $195 | 11.0% | 146 | 1.0 | 143.00× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 565 | $122 | 23.9% | 477 | 3.6 | 133.81× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 265 | $93.59 | 39.2% | 1,162 | 7.6 | 152.75× |
| Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 99.3% | $0.07 | 8.2% | 0 | 1999.4 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 64.84% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.66% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.65% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 64.92% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 65.25% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.25% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.17% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.24% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 65.35% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 65.63% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 65.62% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.69% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 65.66% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.72% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.69% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.70% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.69% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.70% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 65.63% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.73% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 66.05% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 66.01% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.92% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.67% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.75% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 65.74% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 65.78% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.39 | 65.71% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.7%industrial 99.3%best hit $344 (247.2x)