Falchion Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.89

Advertised RTP

76.06%

EV $1.44 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.22%

826 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79 openings · below min

7 days

99.69%±14.72562 openings

30 days

98.22%±12.21826 openings

since tracking started

98.22%±12.21826 openings

75.5%155.0%234.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.01% – 110.43%, 826 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	79	195.48%±38.4	—	odds
7d	562	99.69%±14.7	+3.0σ	odds
30d	826	98.22%±12.2	+3.4σ	odds
All	826	98.22%±12.2	+3.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 826 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,938	$195	1.4%	1	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,926	$184	1.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,361	$87.82	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 8,705	$67.72	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 8,022	$57.20	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 7,793	$54.62	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,572	$44.54	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,997	$35.81	0.5%	1	0.2	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 162	$8.83	3.8%	3	5.1	0.59×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$4.27	11.9%	0	33.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$4.26	11.9%	29	33.2	0.87×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$4.04	12.7%	39	37.3	1.04×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	18.4%	$1.07	13.7%	42	152.3	0.28×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	18.3%	$1.02	13.0%	124	151.3	0.82×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	17.3%	$0.84	10.1%	113	142.8	0.79×
Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	16.9%	$0.80	9.4%	117	140.0	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	15.8%	$0.70	7.7%	46	130.1	0.35×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertbigodesPT$1.89$18497.30x18h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specdoctorbayard$1.89$0.700.37x2h

Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricteddoctorbayard$1.89$0.800.42x2h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedРаст$1.89$0.820.43x3h

Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specРаст$1.89$0.700.37x3h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSniG_DP$1.89$1.020.54x4h

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified،دنH.u.y.L.o.P.a.N. 2.0ال$1.89$4.032.13x5h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted4ипырка$1.89$0.850.45x11h

Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted4ипырка$1.89$0.800.42x11h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted4ипырка$1.89$0.850.45x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.89	76.06%	17
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.89	75.85%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.89	75.94%	17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.89	76.21%	17
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.89	76.43%	17
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.89	76.47%	17
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.89	76.59%	18
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.89	76.61%	17
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.89	76.63%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.89	76.97%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.89	76.98%	17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.89	76.93%	17
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.89	77.09%	17
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.89	76.99%	17
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.89	77.08%	17
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.89	77.11%	17
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.89	77.11%	17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.89	77.18%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.89	77.03%	17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.89	77.07%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.89	76.97%	17
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.89	77.15%	18
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.89	77.46%	18
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.89	77.49%	17
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.89	77.40%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.89	77.16%	17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.89	77.22%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.89	77.19%	17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.89	77.17%	17
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.89	77.08%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%classified 9.2%restricted 56.6%milspec 18.4%mil spec 15.8%best hit $184 (97.30x)