Fall Guys

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.39

Advertised RTP

75.71%

EV $1.05 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.34%

33.1K openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

40.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.68%±4.393,021 openings

7 days

75.23%±1.5826.3K openings

30 days

75.34%±1.4433.1K openings

since tracking started

75.34%±1.4433.1K openings

72.5%77.5%82.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,021	77.68%±4.39	+0.9σ	odds
7d	26.3K	75.23%±1.58	−1.7σ	odds
30d	33.1K	75.34%±1.44	−1.8σ	odds
All	33.1K	75.34%±1.44	−1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 498	$29.25	5.6%	63	66.6	0.95×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 493	$19.91	3.8%	70	67.3	1.04×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 469	$11.97	2.4%	54	70.8	0.76×
Charm \| Semi-Preciouscharm · rare	1 in 424	$8.59	1.9%	77	78.2	0.98×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 338	$6.16	1.7%	75	98.1	0.76×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 199	$4.15	2.0%	145	166.9	0.87×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 92	$2.84	2.9%	899	360.2	2.50×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$2.11	4.3%	267	712.3	0.37×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$1.61	6.1%	1,064	1319.6	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$1.04	9.3%	2,622	3116.7	0.84×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	10.5%	$0.97	9.7%	3,288	3488.8	0.94×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.8%	$0.89	10.0%	4,378	3920.5	1.12×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	12.1%	$0.87	10.0%	3,851	4029.8	0.96×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	13.1%	$0.82	10.2%	3,706	4354.3	0.85×
Charm \| Lil' Bunscharm · restricted	16.8%	$0.63	10.1%	4,462	5572.5	0.80×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	17.3%	$0.60	9.9%	7,157	5747.2	1.25×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffIns1de$1.39$0.600.43x21s

Charm | Lil' Bunscharm · restrictedIns1de$1.39$0.640.46x21s

MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violetレジェンド$1.39$0.870.63x26s

MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violetIns1de$1.39$0.870.63x39s

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffowo$1.39$0.600.43x53s

Charm | Lil' Bunscharm · restrictedレジェンド$1.39$0.640.46x1m

Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violetSatella$1.39$0.870.63x1m

Charm | Lil' Bunscharm · restricted☬ᴠᴇɴᴏᴍ☬$1.39$0.640.46x1m

Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violetSatella$1.39$0.870.63x2m

Charm | Lil' Bunscharm · restrictedSatella$1.39$0.640.46x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.71%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.39	75.71%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.39	75.64%	16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.39	75.52%	16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.39	75.86%	16
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.39	76.21%	16
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.39	76.18%	16
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.39	76.12%	16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.39	76.20%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.39	76.24%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.39	76.65%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.39	76.78%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.39	76.75%	16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.39	76.66%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.39	76.66%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.39	76.73%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	76.63%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	76.62%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.39	76.63%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.39	76.61%	17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	76.74%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	76.72%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.39	76.71%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.39	77.06%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.39	77.12%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.39	77.14%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.39	76.78%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.39	76.75%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.39	76.79%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.39	76.81%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.39	76.77%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%pink 2.4%classified 0.2%rare 0.2%#d32ce6 0.3%Legendary 0.5%#8847ff 30.6%violet 38.3%Mythical 10.5%restricted 16.8%best hit —