FAMAS

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.19

Advertised RTP

75.06%

EV $1.64 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.51%

426 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

73.27%±7.63327 openings

30 days

73.51%±6.74426 openings

since tracking started

73.51%±6.74426 openings

46.0%72.0%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	72.15%±25.4	—	odds
7d	327	73.27%±7.63	−0.7σ	odds
30d	426	73.51%±6.74	−0.8σ	odds
All	426	73.51%±6.74	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 426 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 155,856	$99.71	0.0%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 118,053	$73.95	0.0%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Sundown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 96,364	$63.91	0.0%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 51,354	$45.94	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32,327	$37.82	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,873	$29.56	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,857	$24.40	0.2%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,841	$23.49	0.2%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,055	$19.36	0.2%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,166	$16.51	0.3%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,311	$12.25	0.6%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 486	$8.76	1.1%	3	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	1 in 486	$8.76	1.1%	0	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 405	$8.24	1.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 377	$8.04	1.3%	1	1.1	0.88×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 194	$6.42	2.0%	6	2.2	2.73×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 167	$6.10	2.2%	1	2.6	0.39×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 101	$5.13	3.1%	7	4.2	1.65×
FAMAS \| Night Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 54	$4.12	4.7%	0	7.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$3.41	6.6%	10	13.5	0.74×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 21	$2.95	8.5%	18	20.2	0.89×
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$2.73	9.7%	21	25.0	0.84×
FAMAS \| Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$2.56	10.9%	21	29.7	0.71×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12	$2.38	12.2%	44	35.8	1.23×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	65.8%	$0.84	33.6%	283	280.2	1.01×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedilieyy411$2.19$0.820.37x2h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedK7$2.19$0.840.38x3h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedninja1;$2.19$0.850.39x7h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedNilzran$2.19$0.850.39x8h

FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedVLIQ$2.19$2.721.24x11h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted𝕰𝖒𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖓𝖊ss$2.19$0.850.39x12h

FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffБлэкджекович$2.19$2.991.37x13h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedFallenflix$2.19$0.960.44x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.19	75.06%	25
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.19	74.90%	25
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.19	74.90%	25
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.19	75.14%	25
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.19	75.39%	25
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.19	75.42%	25
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.19	75.67%	25
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.19	75.58%	25
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.19	75.55%	25
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.19	76.00%	25
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.19	75.99%	25
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.19	75.98%	25
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.19	76.12%	25
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.19	75.94%	25
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.19	75.99%	25
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.19	76.13%	25
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.19	76.10%	25
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.19	76.04%	25
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.19	75.98%	25
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.19	76.09%	25
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.19	75.99%	25
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.19	76.27%	25
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.19	76.38%	25
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.19	76.37%	25
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.19	76.49%	25
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.19	76.20%	25
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.19	76.24%	25
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.19	76.16%	25
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.19	76.10%	25
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.19	76.00%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%#8847ff 13.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%uncommon 0.0%pink 0.5%classified 1.0%restricted 71.7%#d32ee6 0.1%violet 0.2%#777777 0.2%#4b69ff 7.2%Mythical 0.3%blue 0.6%Consumer Grade 1.9%mil spec 3.2%best hit —