FBBTV

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.99

Advertised RTP

76.03%

EV $2.27 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.86%

1,531 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

39 openings · below min

7 days

92.32%±4.221,376 openings

30 days

90.86%±4.021,531 openings

since tracking started

90.86%±4.021,531 openings

44.0%70.5%97.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.31% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (86.84% – 94.88%, 1,531 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	39	69.64%±24.8	—	odds
7d	1,376	92.32%±4.22	+7.0σ	odds
30d	1,531	90.86%±4.02	+6.6σ	odds
All	1,531	90.86%±4.02	+6.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,531 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 179,012	$208	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 162,121	$165	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 118,701	$115	0.0%	1	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 88,331	$93.93	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 88,253	$93.88	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 64,264	$79.15	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 58,058	$75.38	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 46,630	$68.28	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 22,679	$51.14	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 15,597	$44.54	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 12,846	$41.54	0.1%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11,417	$39.83	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 11,417	$39.83	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 6,782	$33.19	0.2%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,712	$31.28	0.2%	2	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,850	$29.56	0.3%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,415	$28.62	0.3%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,838	$24.61	0.4%	2	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,095	$22.19	0.5%	2	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 739	$15.56	0.9%	7	2.1	3.38×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 381	$12.40	1.4%	13	4.0	3.23×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 366	$12.23	1.5%	6	4.2	1.44×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 365	$12.21	1.5%	4	4.2	0.95×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 330	$11.80	1.6%	5	4.6	1.08×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 199	$9.89	2.2%	11	7.7	1.43×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 148	$8.90	2.7%	13	10.4	1.25×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$6.09	5.1%	22	29.2	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$5.46	6.1%	30	38.6	0.78×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$3.61	10.5%	155	101.5	1.53×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$3.41	11.2%	134	114.0	1.18×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	16.8%	$2.02	14.9%	239	257.4	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	17.0%	$2.00	15.0%	22	260.3	0.08×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	22.5%	$1.15	11.4%	190	344.8	0.55×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	22.5%	$1.13	11.2%	53	344.9	0.15×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkN$2.99$1.130.38x4h

USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedN$2.99$3.411.14x4h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkАналный сквозняк$2.99$1.130.38x5h

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedROLTON$2.99$1.190.40x8h

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedChico$2.99$1.190.40x8h

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedAzevedon$2.99$1.230.41x11h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkВоДиЛа_По_ГуБаМ$2.99$1.160.39x16h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMARCELO FLORES MENTALITY$2.99$1.170.39x17h

Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMARCELO FLORES MENTALITY$2.99$11.793.94x17h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkŠuflikys$2.99$1.170.39x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.99	76.03%	34
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.99	75.90%	34
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.99	75.88%	34
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.99	76.28%	34
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.99	76.53%	34
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.99	76.58%	34
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.99	76.53%	34
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.99	76.60%	34
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.99	76.74%	34
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.99	77.14%	34
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.99	77.09%	34
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.99	77.08%	34
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.99	77.07%	35
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.99	77.11%	35
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.99	77.19%	35
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.99	77.05%	34
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.99	77.01%	34
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.99	77.06%	34
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.99	77.05%	33
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.99	77.10%	35
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.99	77.03%	35
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.99	77.10%	34
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.99	77.48%	33
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.99	77.51%	34
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.99	77.47%	34
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.99	77.15%	34
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.99	77.13%	34
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.99	77.15%	34
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.99	77.22%	34
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.99	77.12%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 32.4%restricted 6.6%blue 17.0%mil spec 2.5%Ancient 0.0%Mythical 0.0%pink 24.4%Rare 16.8%best hit —