Felps mining
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.19
Advertised RTP
66.09%
EV $1.45 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
163.83%
3,908 openings, odds method
Variance
90.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 165
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 66.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (133.48% – 194.19%, 3,908 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,908 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 8,650 | $1,036 | 8.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 6,311 | $667 | 7.3% | 4 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary | 1 in 3,167 | $431 | 9.4% | 6 | 1.2 | 4.86× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 873 | $255 | 20.2% | 11 | 4.5 | 2.46× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 231 | $160 | 47.8% | 27 | 16.9 | 1.60× |
| Charm | Lil' Cursecharm · #4b69ff | 99.4% | $0.10 | 7.1% | 3,859 | 3884.3 | 0.99× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.09%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.19 | 66.09% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.19 | 65.95% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.19 | 65.91% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.19 | 66.18% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.19 | 66.47% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.19 | 66.49% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.19 | 66.46% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.19 | 66.53% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.19 | 66.59% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.19 | 66.95% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.19 | 66.92% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.19 | 66.91% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.19 | 66.97% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.19 | 66.94% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.19 | 66.96% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 66.97% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 66.95% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.19 | 66.93% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.19 | 66.93% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 66.96% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 66.89% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.19 | 66.99% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.19 | 67.28% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.19 | 67.30% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.19 | 67.22% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.19 | 66.94% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.19 | 67.05% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.19 | 67.02% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.19 | 67.02% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.19 | 67.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%legendary 0.0%pink 0.4%#4b69ff 99.4%best hit $1,003 (458.0x)