Fenya

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

75.95%

EV $2.57 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.59%

2,299 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.03%±11.99301 openings

7 days

76.03%±4.832,061 openings

30 days

76.59%±4.592,299 openings

since tracking started

76.59%±4.592,299 openings

65.5%78.0%90.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	301	78.03%±12.0	+0.3σ	odds
7d	2,061	76.03%±4.83	−0.3σ	odds
30d	2,299	76.59%±4.59	−0.1σ	odds
All	2,299	76.59%±4.59	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,302 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 199,167	$791	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 197,702	$563	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 145,712	$177	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 136,893	$165	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 118,687	$145	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 109,630	$136	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 71,602	$105	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 66,915	$101	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 29,105	$70.56	0.1%	1	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 21,287	$62.61	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13,528	$53.04	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,991	$39.83	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,708	$39.17	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,298	$32.43	0.4%	0	0.7	—
MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,721	$30.36	0.4%	0	0.8	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,190	$28.19	0.5%	1	1.1	0.95×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,539	$24.98	0.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,325	$23.73	0.7%	1	1.7	0.58×
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,210	$23.00	0.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 470	$16.58	1.4%	7	4.9	1.43×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 463	$16.51	1.4%	3	5.0	0.60×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 199	$12.23	2.4%	20	11.6	1.73×
MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 156	$11.20	2.8%	25	14.7	1.70×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 128	$10.40	3.2%	18	18.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 89	$9.07	3.9%	2	25.8	0.08×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 24	$5.18	8.3%	12	94.6	0.13×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$4.26	9.7%	157	135.0	1.16×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$3.58	10.6%	228	175.0	1.30×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10	$2.84	10.8%	273	225.0	1.21×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	11.8%	$1.90	8.7%	318	272.6	1.17×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	11.9%	$1.75	8.1%	161	273.9	0.59×
AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	11.9%	$1.66	7.7%	118	273.3	0.43×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	11.4%	$1.37	6.1%	246	262.4	0.94×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.9%	$1.23	5.2%	186	251.7	0.74×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.8%	$1.20	5.1%	172	249.4	0.69×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalVALERON142RUS$3.39$1.330.39x7m

Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffVALERON142RUS$3.39$2.500.74x7m

AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareVALERON142RUS$3.39$1.670.49x7m

Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffguts$3.39$2.500.74x10m

P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalguts$3.39$1.330.39x10m

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violetguts$3.39$23.917.05x10m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendaryстарый$3.39$5.141.52x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	75.95%	35
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	75.82%	35
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	75.77%	35
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	76.09%	35
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	76.41%	35
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	76.39%	35
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	76.38%	35
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	76.44%	35
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	76.52%	34
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	76.94%	35
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	35
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	76.94%	35
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	76.98%	35
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	76.91%	34
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	77.00%	35
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	35
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	76.96%	34
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	34
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	76.97%	35
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	76.95%	35
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	77.03%	34
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	77.37%	34
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	77.39%	35
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	77.30%	35
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	76.94%	35
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	77.09%	35
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	77.07%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	77.08%	35
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$3.39	77.05%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%rare 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%restricted 0.8%Ancient 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 0.1%violet 21.8%classified 14.3%#d32ee6 0.2%#8847ff 10.4%Mythical 24.4%Legendary 4.1%Rare 23.8%best hit —