Свирепый оборотень
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.69
Advertised RTP
76.54%
EV $2.06 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.06%
33.6K openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.37% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.19% – 79.93%, 33,619 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.54%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 76.54% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.36% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.35% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.60% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.99% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.94% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.02% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.07% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.07% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 77.43% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.58% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.56% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.45% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 77.95% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 77.91% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.83% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 77.64% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.69 | 77.62% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 14.8%gold 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 2.0%covert knife 0.0%covert 0.0%rare 0.0%pink 9.1%Legendary 2.0%Classified 2.9%#8847ff 21.5%violet 14.5%Mythical 6.7%restricted 26.3%best hit —