Ferrari F8 Tributo

A case on csgo.net (Ultra), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$879.00

Advertised RTP

73.17%

EV $643.21 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.49%

15 openings, odds method

Variance

0.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

39.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

15 openings · below min

30 days

15 openings · below min

since tracking started

15 openings · below min

72.5%107.5%142.5%

Small sample. 15 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	113.41%±28.2	—	odds
7d	15	94.49%±18.3	—	odds
30d	15	94.49%±18.3	—	odds
All	15	94.49%±18.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 990	$4,541	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$2,204	2.5%	1	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 30	$1,159	6.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 29	$1,151	6.1%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$1,149	6.1%	2	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1,138	6.2%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$716	8.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 13	$704	8.5%	2	1.2	1.72×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 11	$597	8.5%	1	1.4	0.73×
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 11	$584	8.5%	1	1.4	0.71×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10	$569	8.5%	4	1.4	2.78×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 10	$563	8.4%	1	1.4	0.69×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.2%	$518	8.2%	1	1.5	0.65×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.9%	$448	7.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	11.1%	$319	5.5%	1	1.7	0.60×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert626$879$2,2082.51x23h

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covertXM1NN$879$1,6141.84x2d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedGET25$879$1,1921.36x16h

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert\\_Fen1x_//$879$7370.84x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertDOTEX$879$7040.80x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertIGROGAME$879$6190.70x6d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertVLIQ$879$5930.67x2d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertB4RMEN$879$5720.65x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareD3stra$879$5650.64x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$879$5160.59x11h

★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertGET25$879$3180.36x16h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedGET25$879$1,1921.36x16h

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertGET25$879$5560.63x16h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedGET25$879$1,1921.36x16h

AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert626$879$2,2082.51x23h

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertFarga$879$5250.60x1d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertB4RMEN$879$5720.65x1d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertDOTEX$879$5490.62x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertDOTEX$879$7040.80x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.17%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$879	73.17%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$879	73.01%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$879	72.99%	16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$879	73.27%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$879	73.59%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$879	73.60%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$879	73.58%	16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$879	73.65%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$879	73.71%	16
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$879	74.12%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$879	74.10%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$879	74.09%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$879	74.11%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$879	74.11%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$879	74.11%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$879	74.12%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$879	74.10%	17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$879	74.10%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$879	74.11%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$879	74.11%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$879	74.05%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$879	74.17%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$879	74.50%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$879	74.51%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$879	74.42%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$879	74.12%	17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$879	74.21%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$879	74.20%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$879	74.21%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$879	74.19%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.1%covert 69.0%extraordinary 3.4%classified 3.4%restricted 14.4%rare 9.7%best hit $2,208 (2.51x)