Fever Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.59
Advertised RTP
75.49%
EV $1.96 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.56%
1,371 openings, odds method
Variance
4.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,395 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.59 | 75.49% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.34% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.30% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.59 | 75.63% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.59 | 75.92% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.92% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.94% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.59 | 75.96% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.59 | 76.09% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.59 | 76.44% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.59 | 76.45% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.59 | 76.39% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.44% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.44% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.59 | 76.46% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.48% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.43% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.43% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.45% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.50% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.59 | 76.39% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.50% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.59 | 76.85% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.59 | 76.88% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.80% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.46% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.53% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.59 | 76.54% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.59 | 76.54% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.59 | 76.51% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%gold 0.1%rare 0.0%sunny 0.0%uncommon 0.0%Ancient 0.1%pink 33.1%violet 38.6%Mythical 12.5%#4b69ff 11.6%blue 2.5%milspec 1.4%best hit —