Fever knives
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$259.00
Advertised RTP
66.78%
EV $172.97 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.76%
841 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 841 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $259 | 66.78% | 24 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $259 | 66.63% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $259 | 66.61% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $259 | 66.87% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $259 | 67.16% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $259 | 67.17% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $259 | 67.15% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $259 | 67.21% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $259 | 67.27% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $259 | 67.65% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $259 | 67.62% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $259 | 67.61% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $259 | 67.65% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $259 | 67.62% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $259 | 67.63% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $259 | 67.64% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $259 | 67.58% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $259 | 67.69% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $259 | 68.00% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $259 | 68.00% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $259 | 67.92% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $259 | 67.65% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $259 | 67.73% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $259 | 67.72% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $259 | 67.73% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $259 | 67.70% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 20.3%gold 26.4%legendary 5.6%rare 27.2%epic 5.4%Immortal 4.3%sunny 3.7%#ffd700 4.7%Covert 2.4%best hit $570 (2.20x)