Fiery heart

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.79

Advertised RTP

76.24%

EV $5.18 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 178,432	$460	0.0%	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 109,926	$243	0.0%	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 81,138	$200	0.0%	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 76,119	$193	0.0%	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 55,629	$165	0.1%	—
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 27,855	$124	0.1%	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,771	$120	0.1%	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 23,571	$116	0.1%	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 19,615	$108	0.1%	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 15,432	$99.26	0.1%	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13,276	$94.01	0.1%	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 12,262	$91.37	0.1%	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,853	$84.55	0.2%	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,924	$78.32	0.2%	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,299	$63.35	0.3%	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,751	$60.44	0.3%	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,989	$55.90	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,932	$55.53	0.4%	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,367	$42.72	0.6%	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,105	$39.70	0.7%	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,060	$39.13	0.7%	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 745	$34.63	0.9%	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 585	$31.82	1.1%	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 522	$30.59	1.1%	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 505	$30.24	1.2%	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 267	$24.08	1.7%	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$17.14	3.1%	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$12.53	4.8%	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 48	$12.28	4.9%	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$11.56	5.3%	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$10.80	5.7%	—
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$10.72	5.8%	—
Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$9.13	6.7%	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$6.45	7.9%	—
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$5.81	8.0%	—
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 12	$4.21	7.0%	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 11	$3.71	6.4%	—
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 11	$3.39	5.9%	—
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 11	$3.00	5.1%	—
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.95	5.0%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.26	3.5%	—
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$1.69	2.2%	—
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$1.21	1.2%	—
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.02	0.9%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$6.79	76.24%	44
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.79	76.02%	44
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.79	75.86%	44
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.79	75.86%	44
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.79	76.13%	44
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.79	76.47%	44
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.79	76.47%	44
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.79	76.45%	44
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.79	76.50%	44
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.79	76.57%	44
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	44
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.79	76.98%	44
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.79	76.97%	44
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	44
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.79	77.01%	44
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.79	77.02%	44
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.03%	44
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	76.99%	44
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.79	76.98%	44
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.79	77.00%	44
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.02%	44
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	76.93%	44
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.79	77.06%	44
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.79	77.41%	44
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$6.79	77.44%	44
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$6.79	77.31%	44
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.79	77.03%	44
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$6.79	77.10%	44
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.79	77.10%	44
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.79	77.10%	44

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.2%covert 0.6%classified 22.8%Ancient 0.2%red 0.2%pink 21.5%#d32ee6 11.0%restricted 35.0%Legendary 8.7%