Flora mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.49
Advertised RTP
66.61%
EV $0.99 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
146.58%
9,533 openings, odds method
Variance
54.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 138
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 67.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (129.01% – 164.15%, 9,533 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,536 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 180,686 | $1,993 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 115,508 | $1,050 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 110,695 | $1,016 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 86,683 | $865 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 1,148 | $169 | 14.9% | 30 | 8.3 | 3.61× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 158 | $87.06 | 55.4% | 74 | 60.2 | 1.23× |
| P250 | Iron Clad (Field-Tested)weapon · 1 | 46.1% | $0.37 | 17.4% | 1,102 | 4391.6 | 0.25× |
| SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 25.3% | $0.20 | 5.2% | 2,488 | 2413.7 | 1.03× |
| P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 14.1% | $0.11 | 1.6% | 1,378 | 1342.3 | 1.03× |
| FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 13.8% | $0.11 | 1.6% | 102 | 1319.5 | 0.08× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.49 | 66.61% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.46% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.44% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.49 | 66.70% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.49 | 66.97% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.49 | 66.97% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.49 | 66.96% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.49 | 67.02% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.49 | 67.08% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.49 | 67.46% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.49 | 67.43% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.49 | 67.43% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.46% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.45% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.49 | 67.45% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.46% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.43% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.43% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.44% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.45% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.49 | 67.40% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.51% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.49 | 67.82% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.49 | 67.82% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.73% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.44% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.55% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.49 | 67.54% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.49 | 67.54% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.49 | 67.52% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 46.1%extraordinary 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%sunny 0.1%Covert 0.6%milspec 39.1%#4b69ff 14.1%best hit $872 (585.2x)