Fomynha mining
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.69
Advertised RTP
67.31%
EV $1.14 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
135.91%
364 openings, odds method
Variance
39.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 46
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 67.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (70.94% – 200.89%, 364 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 364 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 9,424 | $575 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 9,228 | $518 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare | 1 in 2,263 | $150 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · Immortal | 1 in 1,140 | $114 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 50 | $38.32 | 67.6% | 21 | 7.3 | 2.87× |
| P90 | Facility Negative (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 26.5% | $0.13 | 3.0% | 138 | 96.6 | 1.43× |
| MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 16.0% | $0.08 | 1.1% | 22 | 58.1 | 0.38× |
| Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 14.9% | $0.07 | 1.0% | 30 | 54.4 | 0.55× |
| P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec | 14.5% | $0.07 | 0.9% | 69 | 52.9 | 1.30× |
| Dual Berettas | Stained (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 13.8% | $0.07 | 0.8% | 0 | 50.1 | 0.00× |
| MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9 | 12.1% | $0.06 | 0.6% | 0 | 44.1 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.69 | 67.31% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.69 | 67.19% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.69 | 67.16% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.69 | 67.43% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.69 | 67.72% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.69 | 67.73% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.69 | 67.72% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.69 | 67.77% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.69 | 67.82% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.69 | 68.22% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.69 | 68.17% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.69 | 68.16% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.69 | 68.20% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.69 | 68.20% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.69 | 68.19% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.69 | 68.21% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.69 | 68.19% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.69 | 68.21% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.69 | 68.21% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.69 | 68.19% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.69 | 68.14% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.69 | 68.25% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.69 | 68.58% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.69 | 68.56% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.69 | 68.50% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.69 | 68.22% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.69 | 68.29% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.69 | 68.30% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.69 | 68.29% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.69 | 68.27% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.0%Immortal 0.1%extraordinary 2.0%milspec 41.1%blue 30.9%industrial 13.8%#5e98d9 12.1%best hit —