Fortnite
A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.13
Advertised RTP
73.61%
EV $0.10 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.99%
31.3K openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.63% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.72% – 94.26%, 31,264 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 73.61% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.55% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.48% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 73.72% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 74.16% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.04% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.08% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 73.97% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 74.02% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 74.66% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 74.39% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 74.53% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.66% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.70% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 74.71% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.80% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.65% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.71% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.66% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.67% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 74.47% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.60% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 74.90% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 75.13% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.96% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.56% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.77% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 74.74% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 74.59% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.13 | 74.80% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 0.3%restricted 0.6%#8847ff 0.7%blue 23.0%Rare 24.6%milspec 27.0%Uncommon 23.8%best hit —