Forza Horizon 6

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.48

Advertised RTP

80.01%

EV $0.38 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.63%

1,073 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

72 openings · below min

7 days

82.09%±5.30793 openings

30 days

83.63%±4.591,073 openings

since tracking started

83.63%±4.591,073 openings

53.5%72.0%90.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	72	72.06%±17.9	—	odds
7d	793	82.09%±5.30	+0.5σ	odds
30d	1,073	83.63%±4.59	+1.2σ	odds
All	1,073	83.63%±4.59	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,075 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,783	$16.59	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,752	$15.85	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,430	$11.87	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 9,000	$9.69	0.3%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 8,565	$8.44	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 6,808	$5.99	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 6,509	$5.72	0.2%	1	0.2	—
P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,820	$5.19	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,933	$3.46	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,159	$2.34	0.5%	0	0.9	—
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,161	$2.34	0.5%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 724	$1.96	0.7%	1	1.5	0.67×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 578	$1.80	0.8%	3	1.9	1.61×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 186	$1.19	1.7%	7	5.8	1.21×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 150	$1.10	1.9%	8	7.2	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$1.05	2.1%	12	8.1	1.49×
MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 94	$0.92	2.5%	16	11.4	1.40×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$0.78	3.3%	19	17.5	1.08×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 44	$0.68	4.0%	45	24.2	1.86×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 27	$0.55	5.3%	39	39.5	0.99×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$0.51	5.6%	72	45.1	1.60×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 18	$0.45	6.3%	12	58.2	0.21×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 18	$0.44	6.3%	30	59.7	0.50×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$0.41	6.6%	74	65.6	1.13×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 15	$0.39	6.9%	84	73.3	1.15×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$0.36	7.1%	115	81.3	1.41×
Charm \| Lil' Zencharm · #4b69ff	10.1%	$0.28	7.2%	67	108.5	0.62×
P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.2%	$0.27	7.2%	74	109.2	0.68×
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	10.6%	$0.26	7.1%	29	113.9	0.25×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.9%	$0.25	7.0%	168	116.7	1.44×
SSG 08 \| Zeno (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	11.5%	$0.22	6.7%	70	123.2	0.57×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specЕгорёк)$0.48$0.260.54x1h

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violetЕгорёк)$0.48$0.400.84x1h

MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffЕгорёк)$0.48$0.390.80x1h

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedЕгорёк)$0.48$0.250.52x1h

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSkala$0.48$0.250.53x3h

MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffMAYO$0.48$0.390.81x3h

SSG 08 | Zeno (Field-Tested)weapon · RareuJMATi SKINS$0.48$0.220.46x3h

MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffuJMATi SKINS$0.48$0.390.81x3h

Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specuJMATi SKINS$0.48$0.260.54x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.48	80.01%	31
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.48	79.80%	31
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.48	79.60%	31
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.48	79.63%	31
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.48	79.97%	31
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.48	80.31%	31
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.48	80.35%	31
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.48	80.29%	31
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.48	80.37%	31
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.48	80.36%	31
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.48	80.83%	31
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.48	80.80%	31
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.48	80.82%	31
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.48	80.79%	31
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.48	80.89%	31
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.48	80.79%	31
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.48	80.85%	31
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.48	80.79%	31
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.48	80.78%	31
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.48	80.76%	31
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.48	80.82%	31
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.48	80.78%	31
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.48	80.87%	31
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.48	81.26%	31
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.48	81.25%	31
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.48	81.15%	31
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.48	80.88%	30
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.48	80.82%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.48	80.91%	31
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.48	80.92%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%uncommon 0.0%Legendary 0.1%Mythical 2.6%Rare 11.6%restricted 16.3%#8847ff 19.8%violet 7.7%common 5.4%#4b69ff 15.7%mil spec 20.7%best hit —