Fracture Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.67
Advertised RTP
75.65%
EV $0.51 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.22%
1,316 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
43.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,317 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 9,039 | $41.54 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 8,175 | $32.43 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 68 | $3.53 | 10.3% | 22 | 19.5 | 1.13× |
| Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 68 | $3.53 | 10.3% | 21 | 19.4 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 64 | $3.46 | 10.6% | 24 | 20.5 | 1.17× |
| MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 19.2% | $0.36 | 13.7% | 250 | 253.3 | 0.99× |
| MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 19.2% | $0.36 | 13.6% | 200 | 253.1 | 0.79× |
| Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff | 19.1% | $0.36 | 13.5% | 129 | 251.9 | 0.51× |
| MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 19.0% | $0.35 | 13.3% | 251 | 250.6 | 1.00× |
| Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 18.9% | $0.35 | 13.0% | 244 | 248.5 | 0.98× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.65%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.65% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.35% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.74% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.11% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.10% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.09% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.14% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.23% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.56% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.65% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.67% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.70% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.02% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 77.05% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.93% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.63% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.72% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.77% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.73% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 76.66% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 4.5%violet 38.1%Mythical 19.2%#8847ff 38.2%best hit —