Искра Франкенштейна
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.21
Advertised RTP
61.43%
EV $0.13 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
7639.83%
804 openings, odds method
Variance
53.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 132
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 61.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (7588.87% – 7690.79%, 804 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 806 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 6,211 | $51.34 | 6.4% | 11 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 2,897 | $32.29 | 8.6% | 18 | 0.3 | — |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 1,309 | $23.16 | 13.7% | 71 | 0.6 | — |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 793 | $19.22 | 18.8% | 137 | 1.0 | 134.73× |
| Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 198 | $11.85 | 46.3% | 519 | 4.1 | 127.78× |
| AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 99.2% | <$0.01 | 6.2% | 0 | 799.9 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 61.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.21 | 61.43% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.21 | 60.97% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.21 | 60.79% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.21 | 60.78% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.21 | 61.42% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.21 | 61.68% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.21 | 61.68% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.21 | 61.67% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.21 | 61.50% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.21 | 61.54% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.21 | 61.87% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.21 | 61.84% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.21 | 61.85% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.21 | 61.87% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.21 | 61.86% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.21 | 61.88% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 61.88% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 61.85% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.21 | 61.86% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.21 | 61.94% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 61.99% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 61.82% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.21 | 61.93% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.21 | 62.45% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.21 | 62.33% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.21 | 62.19% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.21 | 61.95% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.21 | 61.94% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.21 | 61.97% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.21 | 62.10% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%restricted 0.1%classified 0.6%#b0c3d9 99.2%best hit $55.05 (262.1x)