Яхта Габена

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$0.07
Advertised RTP
78.51%
EV $0.05 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.23%
24.3K openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
113.98%±3.151,721 openings
7 days
115.09%±1.1418K openings
30 days
116.23%±1.0324.3K openings
since tracking started
116.23%±1.0324.3K openings
77.5%97.8%118.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 79.20% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (115.21% – 117.26%, 24,300 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,721113.98%±3.15+22.2σodds
7d18K115.09%±1.14+61.7σodds
30d24.3K116.23%±1.03+70.7σodds
All24.3K116.23%±1.03+70.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 9,794$2.360.4%52.52.01×
AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 9,608$1.890.4%92.53.56×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 9,504$1.740.3%82.63.13×
AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 8,441$1.140.2%192.96.60×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 8,371$1.120.2%122.94.13×
MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 8,374$1.120.2%132.94.48×
Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 7,035$0.870.2%213.56.08×
MP5-SD | Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 3,431$0.520.3%357.14.94×
UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)weapon · common1 in 2,457$0.450.3%139.91.31×
Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,726$0.380.4%8514.16.04×
P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted1 in 1,582$0.370.4%5815.43.78×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 1,569$0.370.4%4815.53.10×
P90 | Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 530$0.240.8%11445.82.49×
Glock-18 | High Beam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 145$0.151.9%0167.80.00×
AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · common1 in 40$0.094.3%645605.31.07×
Charm | Biomechcharm · #4b69ff1 in 34$0.094.7%1,516706.82.14×
MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 26$0.085.5%620934.00.66×
P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 21$0.076.2%2,7801143.72.43×
Glock-18 | Winterized (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 22$0.076.1%1291124.20.11×
PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 18$0.076.7%2,7411357.22.02×
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 18$0.076.7%4581352.40.34×
XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 13$0.067.8%6,2951864.13.38×
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 10$0.058.7%02422.90.00×
Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d911.4%$0.049.0%02782.60.00×
M249 | Submerged (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer12.7%$0.049.3%03092.00.00×
AUG | Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer13.1%$0.049.3%03174.20.00×
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial14.2%$0.049.3%03454.30.00×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.51%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC$0.0778.51%27
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$0.0778.36%27
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$0.0778.19%27
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$0.0778.16%29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$0.0778.11%28
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$0.0778.81%28
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$0.0778.81%29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$0.0778.82%27
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$0.0778.82%29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$0.0778.69%29
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$0.0779.37%28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$0.0779.36%28
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$0.0779.38%29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$0.0779.35%29
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$0.0779.38%28
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$0.0779.42%28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$0.0779.52%28
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$0.0779.49%27
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$0.0779.15%28
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$0.0779.22%28
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$0.0779.36%29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$0.0778.94%28
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$0.0779.43%27
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$0.0779.66%26
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$0.0779.52%28
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$0.0779.57%29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$0.0779.30%29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$0.0779.37%29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$0.0779.43%29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$0.0779.21%28
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.0%#8847ff 0.1%Rare 0.0%restricted 0.0%pink 0.0%Mythical 0.0%violet 0.0%common 2.5%Restricted 0.1%#4b69ff 16.2%mil spec 0.2%Uncommon 0.7%blue 3.8%milspec 14.9%industrial 24.2%#5e98d9 11.4%consumer 25.8%best hit —