Price
$0.07
Advertised RTP
78.51%
EV $0.05 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.23%
24.3K openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
38.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 79.20% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (115.21% – 117.26%, 24,300 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.07 | 78.51% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.07 | 78.36% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.07 | 78.19% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.07 | 78.16% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.07 | 78.11% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.07 | 78.81% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.81% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.82% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.82% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.69% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.07 | 79.37% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.07 | 79.36% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.07 | 79.38% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.07 | 79.35% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.07 | 79.38% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.07 | 79.42% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.52% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.49% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.15% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.22% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.36% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 78.94% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.43% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.07 | 79.66% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.07 | 79.52% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.57% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.30% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.37% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.43% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.07 | 79.21% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.0%#8847ff 0.1%Rare 0.0%restricted 0.0%pink 0.0%Mythical 0.0%violet 0.0%common 2.5%Restricted 0.1%#4b69ff 16.2%mil spec 0.2%Uncommon 0.7%blue 3.8%milspec 14.9%industrial 24.2%#5e98d9 11.4%consumer 25.8%best hit —