Galil AR

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.89

Advertised RTP

73.92%

EV $1.40 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

68.24%

226 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

27 openings · below min

7 days

69.12%±9.22187 openings

30 days

68.24%±8.48226 openings

since tracking started

68.24%±8.48226 openings

41.0%64.3%87.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	27	64.20%±22.6	—	odds
7d	187	69.12%±9.22	−1.2σ	odds
30d	226	68.24%±8.48	−1.5σ	odds
All	226	68.24%±8.48	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 165,866	$104	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 128,179	$74.42	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100,953	$61.74	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 54,187	$44.09	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40,929	$39.00	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,952	$22.90	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 6,617	$19.85	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,559	$19.79	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,133	$15.34	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,981	$15.08	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,456	$11.80	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 635	$8.86	1.0%	1	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 390	$7.48	1.4%	0	0.6	—
Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 251	$6.40	1.8%	0	0.9	—
Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 96	$4.49	3.3%	1	2.3	0.43×
Galil AR \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 91	$4.40	3.4%	0	2.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 48	$3.40	5.1%	9	4.7	1.91×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$1.88	8.9%	3	15.0	0.20×
Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$1.65	9.4%	10	17.9	0.56×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12	$1.62	9.3%	23	18.2	1.26×
Galil AR \| Hunting Blind (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 12	$1.61	9.4%	0	18.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$1.48	9.4%	16	20.1	0.79×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.3%	$1.25	9.2%	33	23.2	1.42×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	11.1%	$1.07	8.5%	17	25.1	0.68×
Galil AR \| Galigator (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	11.6%	$0.85	7.0%	55	26.1	2.10×
Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	11.2%	$0.69	5.5%	20	25.3	0.79×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	11.0%	$0.65	5.1%	11	24.9	0.44×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violetКомару$1.89$1.880.99x3h

Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffКомару$1.89$1.630.86x3h

Galil AR | Vandal (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffКомару$1.89$0.650.34x3h

Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecКомару$1.89$1.070.57x3h

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violetsanti$1.89$1.880.99x4h

Galil AR | Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedsanti$1.89$1.250.66x4h

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violetsanti$1.89$1.880.99x4h

Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffsanti$1.89$1.630.86x4h

Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecVLIQ$1.89$1.070.57x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.89	73.92%	27
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.89	73.78%	27
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.89	73.74%	27
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.89	73.99%	27
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.89	74.28%	27
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.89	74.24%	26
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.89	74.19%	26
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.89	74.42%	26
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.89	74.44%	26
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.89	74.86%	26
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.89	74.82%	26
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.89	74.83%	26
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.89	74.80%	27
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.89	74.86%	27
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.89	74.87%	26
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.89	74.84%	26
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.89	74.88%	27
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.89	74.85%	27
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.89	74.84%	26
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.89	74.93%	27
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.89	74.81%	27
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.89	74.86%	27
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.89	75.13%	27
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.89	75.27%	27
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.89	75.11%	27
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.89	74.86%	27
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.89	74.90%	27
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.89	74.95%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.89	74.99%	27
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.89	74.91%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%mil spec 28.1%violet 18.2%classified 0.1%restricted 10.3%industrial 0.3%Rare 1.2%#4b69ff 11.4%Common 9.2%Legendary 2.1%#8847ff 8.0%milspec 11.1%best hit —