Gallery Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.09
Advertised RTP
73.69%
EV $1.54 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.58%
464 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.44% – 99.71%, 464 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 464 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 9,650 | $153 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 3,875 | $43.24 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 1,774 | $30.13 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare | 1 in 19 | $5.45 | 18.8% | 27 | 24.6 | 1.10× |
| P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6 | 1 in 11 | $4.17 | 25.1% | 45 | 43.1 | 1.04× |
| M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 22.3% | $1.04 | 15.0% | 97 | 103.4 | 0.94× |
| SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 22.2% | $1.03 | 14.8% | 102 | 102.9 | 0.99× |
| Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 20.5% | $0.89 | 11.9% | 106 | 95.3 | 1.11× |
| MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 20.3% | $0.87 | 11.5% | 85 | 94.2 | 0.90× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.09 | 73.69% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.62% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.60% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.82% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.09 | 74.23% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.19% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.21% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.29% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.33% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.09 | 74.76% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.09 | 74.79% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.71% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.76% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.65% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.62% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.58% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.66% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.58% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.65% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.66% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.68% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.09 | 75.01% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.09 | 75.04% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.98% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.84% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.78% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.09 | 74.76% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.1%rare 5.3%#d32ce6 9.3%violet 42.8%restricted 22.2%#8847ff 20.3%best hit $153 (73.39x)