Gamma Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.29
Advertised RTP
71.29%
EV $0.92 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.01%
581 openings, odds method
Variance
4.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 581 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 71.29%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.29 | 71.29% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.29 | 71.31% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.29 | 71.16% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.29 | 71.38% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.29 | 71.72% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.29 | 71.69% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.29 | 71.75% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.29 | 71.81% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.29 | 71.93% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.29 | 72.26% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.29 | 72.32% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.29 | 72.29% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.29 | 72.20% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.29 | 72.29% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.29 | 72.29% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.28% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.24% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.24% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.35% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.31% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.29 | 72.27% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.31% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.29 | 72.71% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.29 | 72.72% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.59% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.21% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.40% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.29 | 72.38% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.29 | 72.42% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.29 | 72.47% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedImmortal 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 0.1%#8847ff 3.8%restricted 37.2%mil spec 15.3%milspec 29.1%Rare 14.4%best hit —