Gamma 2 Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.80

Advertised RTP

76.28%

EV $0.61 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

107.05%

1,619 openings, odds method

Variance

7.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.57%±48.29128 openings

7 days

98.75%±15.231,373 openings

30 days

107.05%±14.021,619 openings

since tracking started

107.05%±14.021,619 openings

46.5%95.5%144.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.26% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.03% – 121.07%, 1,619 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	128	95.57%±48.3	+0.8σ	odds
7d	1,373	98.75%±15.2	+2.8σ	odds
30d	1,619	107.05%±14.0	+4.2σ	odds
All	1,619	107.05%±14.0	+4.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,619 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 9,991	$114	1.9%	2	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,989	$109	1.8%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 9,988	$105	1.7%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,986	$99.71	1.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,876	$47.73	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,897	$12.50	0.3%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,602	$12.01	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,165	$11.32	0.4%	1	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.22	10.2%	125	82.6	1.51×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$1.21	10.3%	140	84.2	1.66×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$1.16	10.8%	148	91.9	1.61×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$1.15	11.0%	142	94.3	1.51×
SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$1.10	11.4%	173	102.7	1.68×
G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	23.9%	$0.38	14.7%	205	386.3	0.53×
Negev \| Dazzle (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	24.1%	$0.30	11.8%	298	389.7	0.76×
XM1014 \| Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	23.8%	$0.28	10.9%	34	385.5	0.09×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyHYGYN$0.80$111139.0x4d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyJPCadeirante-.$0.80$110138.0x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffPANIKA$0.80$0.320.40x1m

SCAR-20 | Powercore (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffPANIKA$0.80$1.101.38x1m

G3SG1 | Ventilator (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecPANIKA$0.80$0.380.47x1m

MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · violetPANIKA$0.80$1.241.55x1m

MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · violetPANIKA$0.80$1.241.55x2m

SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPANIKA$0.80$1.221.53x2m

Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalPANIKA$0.80$1.151.44x2m

XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecPANIKA$0.80$0.280.35x3m

Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffPANIKA$0.80$0.320.40x3m

XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecPANIKA$0.80$0.280.35x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.80	76.28%	16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.80	76.13%	17
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.80	76.12%	18
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.80	76.46%	18
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.80	76.80%	18
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.80	76.76%	18
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.80	76.71%	18
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.80	76.76%	16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.80	76.79%	18
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.80	77.30%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.80	77.28%	17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.80	77.34%	16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.80	77.25%	16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.80	77.27%	16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.80	77.26%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.80	77.24%	16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.80	77.22%	16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.80	77.25%	16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.80	77.23%	16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.80	77.30%	16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.80	77.19%	16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.80	77.34%	16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.80	77.70%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.80	77.66%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.80	77.54%	17
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.80	77.32%	17
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.80	77.41%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.80	77.50%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.80	77.39%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.80	77.31%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%covert knife 0.0%red 0.0%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%Legendary 0.0%restricted 5.1%violet 5.2%#8847ff 12.0%Mythical 5.8%milspec 47.7%#4b69ff 24.1%best hit $111 (139.0x)