Гамма эра
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$33.99
Advertised RTP
67.09%
EV $22.80 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
914.83%
289 openings, odds method
Variance
6.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 67.82% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (884.52% – 945.14%, 289 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 289 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 989 | $1,586 | 7.0% | 16 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 987 | $1,508 | 6.7% | 15 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 962 | $1,038 | 4.7% | 4 | 0.3 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 643 | $428 | 2.9% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 493 | $348 | 3.1% | 7 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 143 | $192 | 5.9% | 19 | 2.0 | 9.39× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 142 | $192 | 5.9% | 18 | 2.0 | 8.83× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 104 | $170 | 7.2% | 27 | 2.8 | 9.67× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal | 1 in 71 | $147 | 9.1% | 44 | 4.1 | 10.86× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 17 | $87.53 | 22.4% | 91 | 16.8 | 5.40× |
| USP-S | Para Green (Field-Tested)weapon · 2 | 89.7% | $6.37 | 25.1% | 0 | 259.3 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.09%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $33.99 | 67.09% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $33.99 | 66.94% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $33.99 | 66.79% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $33.99 | 66.76% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $33.99 | 67.02% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $33.99 | 67.32% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $33.99 | 67.32% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $33.99 | 67.31% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $33.99 | 67.37% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $33.99 | 67.42% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $33.99 | 67.81% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $33.99 | 67.78% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $33.99 | 67.78% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $33.99 | 67.78% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $33.99 | 67.79% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $33.99 | 67.79% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $33.99 | 67.79% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $33.99 | 67.77% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $33.99 | 67.78% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $33.99 | 67.80% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $33.99 | 67.80% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $33.99 | 67.72% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $33.99 | 67.83% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $33.99 | 68.15% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $33.99 | 68.15% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $33.99 | 68.07% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $33.99 | 67.79% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $33.99 | 67.88% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $33.99 | 67.87% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $33.99 | 67.87% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 89.7%gold 0.3%#ffd700 0.4%sunny 2.4%Immortal 1.4%Covert 5.8%best hit $1,701 (50.05x)