SERJTHEKING

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

75.57%

EV $3.62 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.34%

1,037 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

73.50%±12.87129 openings

7 days

76.54%±5.03889 openings

30 days

76.34%±4.681,037 openings

since tracking started

76.34%±4.681,037 openings

60.0%73.5%87.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	129	73.50%±12.9	−0.3σ	odds
7d	889	76.54%±5.03	+0.2σ	odds
30d	1,037	76.34%±4.68	+0.0σ	odds
All	1,037	76.34%±4.68	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,038 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 194,058	$525	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 49,994	$114	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 49,956	$114	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 43,678	$107	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 34,260	$96.97	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,414	$96.01	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 31,056	$93.25	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 8,727	$58.50	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,665	$55.90	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,601	$53.07	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,983	$44.58	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,026	$35.37	0.5%	0	0.5	—
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$33.87	0.5%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,505	$31.94	0.6%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 595	$23.22	1.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 593	$23.18	1.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 309	$18.46	1.7%	4	3.4	1.19×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$12.20	3.4%	18	10.5	1.72×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 95	$11.98	3.5%	8	11.0	0.73×
Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$9.13	5.3%	27	21.8	1.24×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$6.45	8.0%	38	46.5	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 22	$6.37	8.1%	4	47.7	0.08×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 18	$5.72	8.8%	63	58.0	1.09×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$4.22	10.2%	92	90.9	1.01×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.5%	$3.53	10.2%	118	108.8	1.08×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	11.7%	$3.00	9.7%	115	121.4	0.95×
XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	12.5%	$2.02	7.0%	68	129.7	0.52×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	12.4%	$1.95	6.7%	99	129.0	0.77×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	12.4%	$1.93	6.6%	23	128.7	0.18×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$1.71	5.7%	133	124.5	1.07×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedHaunter$4.79$12.202.55x37m

USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedP1NKMAN$4.79$3.530.74x49m

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedP1NKMAN$4.79$1.710.36x49m

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalP1NKMAN$4.79$1.950.41x49m

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedgxx-$4.79$1.700.35x3h

USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedgxx-$4.79$3.530.74x3h

AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalMashono4ka♿$4.79$2.030.42x3h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedGr1mmjow$4.79$1.710.36x6h

Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedGr1mmjow$4.79$1.920.40x6h

USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedGr1mmjow$4.79$3.420.71x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.57%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$4.79	75.57%	30
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$4.79	75.35%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$4.79	75.21%	31
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$4.79	75.17%	31
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$4.79	75.48%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$4.79	75.83%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$4.79	75.85%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$4.79	75.81%	31
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$4.79	75.87%	31
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$4.79	75.92%	31
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.79	76.35%	31
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	76.33%	31
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.79	76.30%	31
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$4.79	76.32%	31
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$4.79	76.34%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$4.79	76.34%	30
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.79	76.37%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.79	76.31%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$4.79	76.32%	30
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$4.79	76.39%	31
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.79	76.35%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.79	76.27%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.79	76.40%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$4.79	76.76%	30
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$4.79	76.77%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$4.79	76.64%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$4.79	76.36%	30
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$4.79	76.46%	29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.79	76.42%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	76.42%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%covert 0.2%extraordinary 0.0%red 0.0%classified 28.4%restricted 24.6%pink 16.3%#d32ee6 5.6%#8847ff 12.5%Mythical 12.4%best hit —