Price
$179.00
Advertised RTP
71.86%
EV $128.63 from 73 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.77%
1,023 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values73 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,023 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 71.86%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $179 | 71.86% | 73 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $179 | 71.70% | 73 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $179 | 71.68% | 73 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $179 | 71.96% | 73 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $179 | 72.27% | 74 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $179 | 72.28% | 74 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $179 | 72.26% | 73 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $179 | 72.32% | 74 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $179 | 72.39% | 73 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $179 | 72.79% | 74 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $179 | 72.77% | 74 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $179 | 72.76% | 74 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $179 | 72.78% | 73 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $179 | 72.78% | 74 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $179 | 72.78% | 74 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $179 | 72.79% | 73 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $179 | 72.77% | 74 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $179 | 72.77% | 73 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $179 | 72.78% | 74 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $179 | 72.78% | 73 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $179 | 72.72% | 73 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $179 | 72.84% | 73 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $179 | 73.17% | 74 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $179 | 73.18% | 74 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $179 | 73.09% | 73 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $179 | 72.79% | 73 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $179 | 72.88% | 74 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $179 | 72.87% | 74 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $179 | 72.88% | 74 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $179 | 72.85% | 74 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 58.7%sunny 3.0%legendary 0.4%Immortal 12.6%gold 4.4%rare 6.0%epic 12.7%Extraordinary 2.1%best hit $934 (5.22x)