Бонусный кейс

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

64.54%

EV $2.19 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

65.92%

1,134 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

63.97%±10.54147 openings

7 days

67.34%±4.22980 openings

30 days

65.92%±3.941,134 openings

since tracking started

65.92%±3.941,134 openings

53.0%64.0%75.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	147	63.97%±10.5	−0.1σ	odds
7d	980	67.34%±4.22	+1.0σ	odds
30d	1,134	65.92%±3.94	+0.3σ	odds
All	1,134	65.92%±3.94	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,138 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	1 in 188,236	$230	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 183,744	$205	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 163,412	$150	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 153,553	$136	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 152,738	$135	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 134,237	$116	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 88,430	$84.38	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 66,238	$72.12	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 54,451	$65.68	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,252	$63.34	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sir Bloody Miami Darryl \| The Professionalsagent · master	1 in 49,937	$63.16	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 46,013	$60.93	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 39,145	$56.89	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 32,402	$52.68	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 31,018	$51.77	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,770	$39.17	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,246	$34.37	0.2%	1	0.1	—
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,764	$33.79	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,496	$33.46	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 7,449	$30.73	0.2%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,224	$23.00	0.3%	2	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,035	$19.63	0.4%	0	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 553	$12.50	1.0%	0	2.1	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 457	$11.69	1.2%	1	2.5	0.40×
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 239	$9.26	1.8%	1	4.8	0.21×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 153	$7.85	2.3%	11	7.4	1.48×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 88	$6.32	3.3%	5	13.0	0.39×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 82	$6.15	3.4%	19	13.9	1.37×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$5.13	4.4%	25	21.3	1.17×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$4.47	5.2%	1	28.8	0.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$4.04	5.7%	34	35.2	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$3.53	6.4%	43	44.9	0.96×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$3.37	6.6%	48	48.7	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 16	$2.61	7.3%	23	69.3	0.33×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$2.16	7.2%	73	82.9	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.71	6.5%	82	94.0	0.87×
AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$1.56	6.0%	17	96.2	0.18×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.51	5.9%	74	96.5	0.77×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.48	5.7%	60	96.7	0.62×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.25	4.8%	76	95.9	0.79×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$1.20	4.6%	44	95.1	0.46×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$1.13	4.3%	54	93.8	0.58×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$1.11	4.2%	87	93.2	0.93×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalMashono4ka♿$3.39$1.840.54x13m

Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedi sniff my farts$3.39$1.690.50x21m

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricteddreeeeww$3.39$1.480.44x22m

MAG-7 | Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violetВ нереальной зоне$3.39$1.170.35x27m

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedℋℴℳℯℛ$3.39$1.480.44x28m

Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryIoR$3.39$3.521.04x36m

SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalWhat's up man$3.39$1.080.32x41m

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$3.39$4.051.19x47m

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pinksnowFlake$3.39$6.341.87x54m

AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffMashono4ka♿$3.39$2.070.61x58m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.54%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	64.54%	43
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	64.43%	43
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	64.38%	44
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	64.67%	44
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	64.91%	44
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	64.97%	44
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	64.88%	44
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	64.97%	44
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	65.05%	44
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	65.40%	43
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	65.36%	43
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	65.38%	43
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	65.38%	44
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	65.39%	44
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	65.38%	43
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	65.43%	43
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	65.41%	43
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	65.39%	42
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	65.39%	43
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	65.40%	44
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	65.38%	43
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	65.40%	44
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	65.74%	44
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	65.76%	44
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	65.64%	43
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	65.42%	43
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	65.49%	43
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	65.45%	43
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	65.46%	43
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$3.39	65.49%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%classified 10.8%covert 0.0%red 0.0%pink 11.9%extraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.0%master 0.0%Legendary 10.1%#d32ee6 1.2%#8847ff 7.3%restricted 33.7%Mythical 16.6%violet 8.4%best hit —