Gods and Monsters
A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$21.99
Advertised RTP
75.13%
EV $16.52 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
363.96%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
52.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 182,348 | $3,080 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 55,878 | $1,031 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 5,285 | $424 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 89 | $104 | 7.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 38 | $75.36 | 11.9% | 4 | 0.1 | — |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 24.4% | $16.23 | 24.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| P2000 | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 24.3% | $13.72 | 20.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| M249 | Shipping Forecast (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 24.2% | $13.37 | 19.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| Tec-9 | Hades (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial | 23.3% | $11.75 | 16.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 12 Nov, 00:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.13%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov, 00:45 UTC | $21.99 | 75.13% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $21.99 | 75.44% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $21.99 | 75.22% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $21.99 | 75.05% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $21.99 | 75.03% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $21.99 | 75.32% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $21.99 | 75.66% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $21.99 | 75.66% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $21.99 | 75.65% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $21.99 | 75.71% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $21.99 | 75.77% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $21.99 | 76.20% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $21.99 | 76.16% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $21.99 | 76.15% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $21.99 | 76.20% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $21.99 | 76.19% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $21.99 | 76.19% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $21.99 | 76.20% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $21.99 | 76.17% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $21.99 | 76.20% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $21.99 | 76.19% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $21.99 | 76.19% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $21.99 | 76.13% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $21.99 | 76.25% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $21.99 | 76.59% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $21.99 | 76.60% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $21.99 | 76.50% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $21.99 | 76.19% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $21.99 | 76.29% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $21.99 | 76.29% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%restricted 0.0%mil spec 3.7%industrial 72.1%Industrial Grade 24.2%best hit —