Золотое ухо

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$1.39
Advertised RTP
75.75%
EV $1.05 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.42%
16.8K openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
75.00%±3.382,332 openings
7 days
77.46%±1.4513.4K openings
30 days
77.42%±1.3016.8K openings
since tracking started
77.42%±1.3016.8K openings
71.0%75.3%79.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,33275.00%±3.38−0.4σodds
7d13.4K77.46%±1.45+1.3σodds
30d16.8K77.42%±1.30+1.2σodds
All16.8K77.42%±1.30+1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 9,582$47.800.5%21.81.14×
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 9,421$42.630.4%01.80.00×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 8,446$29.560.3%42.02.01×
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 6,011$19.250.3%22.80.71×
Tec-9 | Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 4,770$16.260.3%03.50.00×
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 4,683$16.070.3%23.60.56×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 3,042$12.700.4%105.51.81×
MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,702$12.010.4%96.21.45×
Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,333$11.240.5%117.21.53×
MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,302$8.830.6%1512.91.16×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 1,196$8.540.7%2914.12.06×
P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,153$8.420.7%1514.61.03×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 388$5.601.4%4643.41.06×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 304$5.131.6%9155.31.65×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 108$3.463.0%167155.91.07×
AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 70$2.914.0%278240.61.16×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 30$1.996.2%101551.90.18×
MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 19$1.537.5%917871.41.05×
SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 18$1.437.7%39955.40.04×
CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 14$1.188.0%1,3261196.81.11×
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 14$1.157.9%1,3261223.51.08×
MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 13$1.077.9%1,1581300.70.89×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 13$1.047.8%1,3301334.71.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 12$0.977.7%1,4171398.71.01×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 11$0.685.9%1,4641537.00.95×
Charm | Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon1 in 11$0.595.0%1,4851512.90.98×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 11$0.554.6%1,4101481.30.95×
XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 11$0.534.4%9451468.70.64×
P90 | Randy Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 12$0.493.9%1,1101419.90.78×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$1.3975.75%29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$1.3975.63%29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$1.3975.56%29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$1.3975.74%29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$1.3976.17%29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$1.3976.16%29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$1.3976.18%29
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$1.3976.17%30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$1.3976.33%30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$1.3976.73%29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$1.3976.78%30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$1.3976.69%29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$1.3976.81%30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$1.3976.67%30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$1.3976.70%28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$1.3976.73%28
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$1.3976.72%29
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$1.3976.68%29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$1.3976.68%28
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$1.3976.71%28
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$1.3976.59%29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$1.3976.78%29
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$1.3977.11%29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$1.3977.16%29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$1.3977.09%29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$1.3976.66%29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$1.3976.80%29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$1.3976.73%29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$1.3976.80%29
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$1.3976.83%29
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 7.8%mil spec 0.0%pink 1.5%restricted 7.4%#d32ee6 0.1%Legendary 0.9%violet 36.1%#8847ff 14.0%Rare 5.7%Mythical 17.4%uncommon 9.0%best hit —