Price
$1.39
Advertised RTP
75.75%
EV $1.05 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.42%
16.8K openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.75%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 75.75% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.63% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.56% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 75.74% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 76.17% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.16% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.18% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.17% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 76.33% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 76.73% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 76.78% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 76.69% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 76.81% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 76.67% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 76.70% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.73% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.72% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.68% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.68% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.71% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 76.59% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 76.78% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 77.11% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 77.16% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 77.09% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 76.66% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 76.80% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 76.73% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 76.80% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.39 | 76.83% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 7.8%mil spec 0.0%pink 1.5%restricted 7.4%#d32ee6 0.1%Legendary 0.9%violet 36.1%#8847ff 14.0%Rare 5.7%Mythical 17.4%uncommon 9.0%best hit —