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A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.06

Advertised RTP

72.77%

EV $0.04 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

290.28%

1,357 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

57.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

44 openings · below min

7 days

304.59%±6.331,162 openings

30 days

290.28%±5.741,357 openings

since tracking started

290.28%±5.741,357 openings

72.5%195.0%317.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (284.53% – 296.02%, 1,357 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	44	288.60%±28.0	—	odds
7d	1,162	304.59%±6.33	+71.4σ	odds
30d	1,357	290.28%±5.74	+73.8σ	odds
All	1,357	290.28%±5.74	+73.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,359 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 9,977	$2.11	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,974	$2.02	0.5%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,954	$1.72	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 9,943	$1.62	0.4%	2	0.1	—
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,927	$1.51	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,922	$1.48	0.3%	2	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 9,840	$1.21	0.3%	3	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,810	$1.15	0.3%	4	0.1	—
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 9,812	$1.15	0.3%	2	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,802	$1.13	0.3%	2	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 9,730	$1.04	0.2%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,716	$1.02	0.2%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,716	$1.02	0.2%	2	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 9,657	$0.97	0.2%	3	0.1	—
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 9,295	$0.78	0.2%	7	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 9,054	$0.71	0.2%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 8,926	$0.68	0.2%	6	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,932	$0.68	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,669	$0.52	0.2%	9	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 6,279	$0.43	0.2%	5	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 5,719	$0.41	0.2%	14	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,719	$0.41	0.2%	19	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,597	$0.36	0.2%	18	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,605	$0.36	0.2%	11	0.3	—
Negev \| dev_texture (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 4,262	$0.34	0.2%	36	0.3	—
SCAR-20 \| Assault (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,170	$0.34	0.2%	3	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 3,853	$0.33	0.2%	22	0.4	—
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 3,633	$0.32	0.2%	16	0.4	—
Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,833	$0.24	0.3%	32	0.7	—
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 942	$0.20	0.5%	67	1.4	46.44×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 692	$0.18	0.6%	69	2.0	35.13×
Negev \| Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 43	$0.08	4.2%	502	31.3	16.02×
R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	12.0%	$0.05	13.7%	0	163.0	0.00×
FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	13.6%	$0.05	14.9%	0	184.3	0.00×
AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	28.4%	$0.04	25.4%	0	386.2	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	43.0%	$0.03	33.5%	0	584.6	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · RareDRAP$0.06$0.081.35x6m

PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1DRAP$0.06$0.182.98x6m

SCAR-20 | Assault (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specDRAP$0.06$0.345.67x6m

Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffDRAP$0.06$0.386.37x6m

Nova | Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specDRAP$0.06$0.244.08x6m

Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested)weapon · RareMsLIBEZ1N$0.06$0.081.35x12m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · commonMsLIBEZ1N$0.06$0.182.97x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 72.77%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.06	72.77%	36
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.06	72.98%	38
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.06	73.06%	37
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.06	73.10%	36
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.06	73.30%	38
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.06	73.52%	37
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.06	73.18%	44
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.06	73.52%	44
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.06	73.13%	33
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.06	73.52%	36
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.06	73.58%	37
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.06	73.81%	38
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.06	73.86%	38
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.06	74.03%	34
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.06	74.12%	36
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.06	73.94%	37
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.06	73.81%	37
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.06	73.78%	44
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.06	73.79%	44
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.06	73.71%	37
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.06	74.20%	35
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.06	73.45%	36
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.06	74.27%	44
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.06	74.38%	36
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.06	74.47%	34
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.06	74.21%	35
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.06	73.90%	35
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.06	74.46%	34
4 Nov, 08:09 UTC	$0.06	73.97%	35
4 Nov, 07:05 UTC	$0.06	74.23%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.1%pink 0.0%restricted 0.1%#8847ff 0.1%violet 0.1%classified 0.0%mil spec 0.1%Mythical 0.0%#4b69ff 0.0%milspec 0.0%common 0.1%Rare 2.3%Common 12.0%industrial 13.6%consumer 28.4%#5e98d9 43.0%best hit —