Граффити
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.07
Advertised RTP
78.69%
EV $0.06 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
833.51%
1,318 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 79.19% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (820.70% – 846.32%, 1,318 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,320 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.07 | 78.69% | 24 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.07 | 77.92% | 24 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.07 | 77.81% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.07 | 78.00% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.07 | 78.59% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.07 | 78.96% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.99% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.76% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.93% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.93% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.07 | 78.96% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.07 | 78.90% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.07 | 78.84% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.07 | 79.29% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.07 | 79.22% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.07 | 79.43% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.33% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.28% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.03% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.19% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.57% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 79.02% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.28% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.07 | 79.70% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.07 | 79.87% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.60% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.24% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.33% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.07 | 79.33% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.07 | 79.42% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 0.0%Exotic 0.0%remarkable 0.0%Mythical 0.3%Legendary 0.1%Remarkable 0.0%other 34.6%#4B69FF 2.6%Rare 1.6%Graffiti 3.2%#B0C3D9 28.9%Common 28.6%best hit —